Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
1 LevanteX2 Athletic Club
SELECTION
FIRST
LATEST
FAIR ODDS NOW
DRIFT
Levante (1)
26.1%
26.6%
3.76
trending_up+0.5 pp
Draw (X)
29.7%
29.9%
3.34
trending_flat+0.2 pp
Athletic Club (2)
44.2%
43.5%
2.30
trending_down-0.7 pp
token
Algorithmic Value
FREE
NO PICK
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.
scatter_plot
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Levante 1 - 1 Athletic Club
PROBABILITY
12.3%
table_chart
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
swords
Match result (1X2)
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Levante
28%3.603.65
Draw
27%3.753.20
Athletic Club
46%2.202.15
shield
Double chance
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Levante or draw
54%1.84—
Athletic Club or draw
72%1.39—
Either team wins (no draw)
73%1.36—
sports_soccer
Total goals
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
73%1.36—
Under 1.5 goals
27%3.74—
Over 2.5 goals
48%2.102.00
Under 2.5 goals
52%1.911.83
Over 3.5 goals
26%3.84—
Under 3.5 goals
74%1.35—
sync_alt
Both teams to score
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
52%1.93—
Not both score (NG)
48%2.08—
history
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking
analytics
What our model says vs what the market says
Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.
Home win (1)
28%Market 26%
Draw (X)
27%Market 30% -3
Away win (2)
46%Market 45%
Over 2.5 goals
48%Market 48%
Both teams to score
52%Market: —
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.5
Most likely final scores
Most likely: Levante 1 - 1 Athletic Club (12.3%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.
1 - 112.3%
0 - 111.2%
1 - 29.1%
1 - 08.3%
0 - 28.3%
Every score
Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.
Season stats, all competitions. Hover or tap a player.
Levante 4-4-2: Mathew Ryan, Manu Sánchez, Ifeanyi Ndukwe, Aïssa Mandi, Jeremy Toljan, Thiago Fernandez, Dani Requena, Jon Ander Olasagasti, Roger Brugué, Petar Ratkov, Iván Romero
Athletic Club 4-2-3-1: Unai Simón, Yuri Berchiche, Aymeric Laporte, Yeray, Hugo Rincón, Mikel Jauregizar, Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Johaneko Louis Jean, Robert Navarro, Álex Berenguer, Maroan Sannadi
Player value glow€0€120m+
Levante4-4-2€39.3m
#
Player
Age
Apps
Goals
Assists
xG
Value
Starting XI
13
34
11
3
30
–
€1.8m
23
26
8
0
0
0.0
€6.0m
3
18
2
1
0
0.5
€3.0m
2
34
17
1
0
0.1
€1.0m
22
32
3
0
1
0.1
€2.0m
24
19
8
0
0
0.9
€4.5m
6
22
1
0
0
0.1
€1.5m
8
26
8
1
1
0.7
€2.5m
7
29
6
3
1
3.8
–
10
23
1
0
0
0.2
€9.0m
9
25
7
3
0
3.3
€8.0m
Substitutes
33
–
–
–
–
–
–
11
–
1
0
0
0.0
€3.0m
16
19
–
–
–
–
€8.0m
14
22
4
0
0
0.0
€900k
17
32
3
0
0
0.4
€1.5m
20
28
7
0
0
0.0
€1.8m
27
19
2
0
0
0.1
€2.0m
1
24
–
–
–
–
–
21
23
2
2
1
0.1
–
32
22
–
–
–
–
–
29
18
5
0
0
1.0
€1.5m
5
22
1
0
0
0.1
–
Athletic Club4-2-3-1€77.5m
#
Player
Age
Apps
Goals
Assists
xG
Value
Starting XI
1
29
21
12
39
–
€22.0m
17
36
7
0
0
0.0
€1.0m
14
32
20
0
1
0.6
€8.0m
5
31
5
0
1
0.0
–
15
23
1
0
0
0.0
€3.5m
18
22
3
0
0
0.1
€25.0m
16
33
6
0
1
0.1
€2.0m
31
22
3
0
0
0.2
€2.0m
23
24
6
2
0
1.8
€7.0m
7
31
4
1
1
0.3
€4.0m
21
25
1
0
0
0.6
€3.0m
Substitutes
20
23
–
–
–
–
€5.0m
24
23
5
0
0
0.0
€5.0m
22
23
–
–
–
–
€1.5m
3
27
–
–
–
–
€20.0m
13
23
1
0
0
0.0
€3.0m
6
25
–
–
–
–
€12.0m
10
24
5
2
1
1.4
€40.0m
28
21
5
0
0
0.3
€10.0m
12
27
5
0
0
0.1
€5.0m
33
17
–
–
–
–
–
9
32
9
1
2
2.5
–
4
26
5
1
0
0.5
€7.5m
Season stats, all competitions. Value: Transfermarkt. Click a player for the full card.
Our model gives Levante win 28%, draw 27%, Athletic Club win 46%. over 2.5 goals 48%. both teams to score 52%. expected goals 1.10 - 1.48. largest gap to the market: draw (3 points). Estimates, not guarantees.
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