Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
1 ComoX2 Manchester United
SELECTION
FIRST
LATEST
FAIR ODDS NOW
DRIFT
Como (1)
43.2%
39.8%
2.51
trending_down-3.4 pp
Draw (X)
24.7%
25.5%
3.93
trending_up+0.8 pp
Manchester United (2)
32.2%
34.7%
2.88
trending_up+2.6 pp
token
Algorithmic Value
FREE
PRIMARY PICK66%
1X (Como or draw)
Our probability: 66%.
Indicative odds: 1.44
scatter_plot
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Como 1 - 1 Manchester United
PROBABILITY
10.2%
table_chart
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
swords
Match result (1X2)
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Como
44%2.282.20
Draw
24%4.223.85
Manchester United
32%3.092.95
shield
Double chance
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Como or draw
68%1.48—
Manchester United or draw
56%1.78—
Either team wins (no draw)
76%1.31—
sports_soccer
Total goals
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
84%1.201.14
Under 1.5 goals
16%6.114.60
Over 2.5 goals
63%1.591.52
Under 2.5 goals
37%2.682.45
Over 3.5 goals
41%2.472.25
Under 3.5 goals
59%1.681.65
sync_alt
Both teams to score
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
64%1.56—
Not both score (NG)
36%2.79—
layers
Bet builder ideas
Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.
BUILDER37%
add_circleComo
add_circleOver 1.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.47
history
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Michael Carricksince 13 Jan 2026 · 27 games · 1.81 pts/game
Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking
analytics
What our model says vs what the market says
Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.
Home win (1)
44%Market 44%
Draw (X)
24%Market 24%
Away win (2)
32%Market 32%
Over 2.5 goals
63%Market 63%
Both teams to score
64%Market: —
Expected goals
1.8 - 1.5
Most likely final scores
Most likely: Como 1 - 1 Manchester United (10.2%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.
1 - 110.2%
2 - 19.0%
1 - 27.6%
1 - 06.9%
2 - 26.6%
Every score
Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.
Season stats, all competitions. Hover or tap a player.
Como 4-2-3-1: Jean Butez, Álex Valle, Jacobo Ramón, Marc-Oliver Kempf, Yan Couto, Luis Milla, Máximo Perrone, Martin Baturina, Nico Paz, Lucas Da Cunha, Anastasios Douvikas
Manchester United 4-2-3-1: Senne Lammens, Diogo Dalot, Noussair Mazraoui, Youri Tielemans, Harry Maguire, Matthijs de Ligt, Matheus Cunha, Andrey Santos, Bruno Fernandes, Mason Mount, Bryan Mbeumo
Player value glow€0€120m+
Como4-2-3-1€288.5m
#
Player
Age
Apps
Goals
Assists
xG
Value
Starting XI
1
31
6
1
13
–
€8.0m
3
22
11
0
3
0.2
€12.0m
4
21
13
3
1
1.7
€45.0m
2
31
1
0
0
0.0
€3.5m
27
24
7
0
1
0.4
€17.0m
6
32
5
0
0
0.2
€8.0m
5
23
5
1
1
0.7
€35.0m
20
23
14
4
2
0.6
€55.0m
10
22
13
5
4
2.5
€80.0m
7
25
8
0
1
0.4
–
9
27
8
5
0
4.3
€25.0m
Substitutes
12
–
–
–
–
–
–
28
26
2
0
0
0.0
€3.5m
16
23
35
1
4
1.3
€14.0m
97
28
3
0
0
0.0
€15.0m
30
19
4
1
0
0.9
€10.0m
13
28
–
–
–
–
€5.0m
21
25
–
–
–
–
€22.0m
8
26
1
0
0
0.3
€13.0m
Manchester United4-2-3-1€346.0m
#
Player
Age
Apps
Goals
Assists
xG
Value
Starting XI
1
24
12
3
45
–
€35.0m
2
27
8
0
2
0.3
€30.0m
3
28
20
1
1
0.1
€18.0m
18
29
21
3
5
0.4
€40.0m
5
33
7
0
0
0.2
€8.0m
4
27
–
–
–
–
–
10
27
14
5
2
0.7
€75.0m
17
22
5
0
0
0.0
€40.0m
8
32
21
5
6
3.2
–
7
27
1
1
0
0.1
€25.0m
19
27
17
4
2
4.1
€75.0m
Substitutes
27
TTTynan ThompsonSUB
–
–
–
–
–
–
57
18
–
–
–
–
–
41
19
–
–
–
–
€7.0m
11
25
–
–
–
–
€20.0m
16
24
7
6
2
0.0
–
31
19
1
1
0
0.0
€5.0m
20
22
6
0
0
0.1
€55.0m
38
19
–
–
–
–
€1.5m
22
40
–
–
–
–
€100k
12
36
3
0
0
0.0
€200k
39
19
2
1
0
0.0
€1.5m
56
JKJaydan KamasonSUB
–
–
–
–
–
–
Season stats, all competitions. Value: Transfermarkt. Click a player for the full card.
Our model gives Como win 44%, draw 24%, Manchester United win 32%. over 2.5 goals 63%. both teams to score 64%. expected goals 1.75 - 1.48. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.
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