RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig, 2026-10-21, UEFA Champions League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

stadiumUEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE•19:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Real Madrid

VS19:00 GMT

RB Leipzig

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

4.33

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

81%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

63%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Over 8.5 corners

MODEL PROBABILITY

69%

ODDS

1.40

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Real MadridX2 RB Leipzig

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Real Madrid (1)	77.6%	78.5%	1.27	trending_up+0.9 pp
Draw (X)	12.8%	12.8%	7.82	trending_flat+0.0 pp
RB Leipzig (2)	9.6%	8.7%	11.47	trending_down-0.9 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK69%

Over 8.5 corners

Expected corners: Real Madrid 7.3, RB Leipzig 3.4, total 10.7 (line 8.5).

Corners-for rate vs average: Real Madrid x1.27, RB Leipzig x1.06 (sample 25 and 25 equivalent matches).

Odds: 1.40

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Real Madrid 3 - 1 RB Leipzig

PROBABILITY

8.1%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.7Exp. cards 3.7

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Real Madrid

80%1.251.24

Draw

12%8.377.50

RB Leipzig

8%12.1010.00

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Real Madrid or draw

92%1.09—

RB Leipzig or draw

20%4.95—

Either team wins (no draw)

88%1.14—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

93%1.071.05

Under 1.5 goals

7%14.467.40

Over 2.5 goals

81%1.241.20

Under 2.5 goals

19%5.153.95

Over 3.5 goals

63%1.591.50

Under 3.5 goals

37%2.682.45

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

63%1.59—

Not both score (NG)

37%2.68—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

79%1.271.22

Under 7.5 corners

21%4.674.00

Over 8.5 corners

69%1.441.40

Under 8.5 corners

31%3.262.75

Over 9.5 corners

59%1.691.66

Under 9.5 corners

41%2.452.10

Over 10.5 corners

49%2.052.10

Under 10.5 corners

51%1.951.66

Over 11.5 corners

39%2.572.75

Under 11.5 corners

61%1.641.40

Over 12.5 corners

30%3.333.75

Under 12.5 corners

70%1.431.25

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

87%1.15—

Under 1.5 cards

13%7.75—

Over 2.5 cards

71%1.421.35

Under 2.5 cards

29%3.402.85

Over 3.5 cards

50%1.991.85

Under 3.5 cards

50%2.011.85

Over 4.5 cards

32%3.17—

Under 4.5 cards

68%1.46—

Over 5.5 cards

18%5.62—

Under 5.5 cards

82%1.22—

Over 6.5 cards

9%10.74—

Under 6.5 cards

91%1.10—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Real Madrid

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · goals 13-8

WLWWW

WHSevilla4-1

WAAS Roma4-3

WHVillarreal1-0

LAAtlético Madrid1-2

WAElche3-2

RB Leipzig

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · goals 13-8

WLWWL

LABayern Munich1-6

WHPSV Eindhoven1-0

WHEintracht Frankfurt6-0

LABayer Leverkusen0-2

WHHamburg SV5-0

Head-to-head

2024-03-06

Real Madrid1 - 1RB Leipzig

2024-02-13

RB Leipzig0 - 1Real Madrid

2022-10-25

RB Leipzig3 - 2Real Madrid

2022-09-14

Real Madrid2 - 0RB Leipzig

compare_arrows

Team comparison

Real Madrid

VS

RB Leipzig

#6Power Index 83.0

Power Ranking

#27 ▼3Power Index 69.2

€1.50bn1st in the league

Squad value

€515m4th in the league

José Mourinhosince 1 Jul 2026 · 11 games · 2.45 pts/game

Head coach

Martín Demichelissince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 1.67 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

80%Market 80%

Draw (X)

12%Market 12%

Away win (2)

8%Market 9%

Over 2.5 goals

81%Market 80%

Both teams to score

63%Market: —

Expected goals

3.3 - 1.1

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Real Madrid 3 - 1 RB Leipzig (8.1%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 3 - 18.1%
2. 3 - 07.7%
3. 2 - 17.5%
4. 2 - 07.1%
5. 4 - 16.7%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by RB Leipzig

Goals scored by Real Madrid

01234501.31.40.70.30.10.014.34.62.40.80.20.027.17.53.91.40.40.137.78.14.31.50.40.146.36.73.51.20.30.154.14.42.30.80.20.0

Lineups

ProbableUpdated 21/10 20:15 · AI Goal Lab estimate

Predicted from the latest reports. It changes when the official lineup is out.

StadiumList

▶ Match simulationLineupGoalsAssistsxGFlares

Real Madrid00RB Leipzig0'

Glow = player market value€0€120m+

Season stats, all competitions. Hover or tap a player.

• Real Madrid 4-2-3-1: Courtois, Carreras, Konaté, Rüdiger, Dumfries, Tchouaméni, Güler, Vinicius Júnior, Bellingham, Valverde, Mbappé
• RB Leipzig 4-2-3-1: Vandevoordt, Raum, Lukeba, Orbán, Baku, El Aynaoui, Banzuzi, Nusa, Nkunku, Gruda, Rômulo

Form

Real Madrid

Last 5, most recent first

WWLWW

Goals per game, for / against2.6 / 1.2

Home, W-D-L (last 10)5-0-0

Away, W-D-L (last 10)2-0-2

RB Leipzig

Last 5, most recent first

LWLWL

Goals per game, for / against2.6 / 2.2

Home, W-D-L (last 10)3-0-0

Away, W-D-L (last 10)0-0-3

Form and team news

Real Madrid

4 W0 D1 L2.6 for1.2 against

Real Madrid have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games, scoring 2.6 and conceding 1.2 per game.

RB Leipzig

2 W0 D3 L2.6 for2.2 against

RB Leipzig have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 2.6 and conceding 2.2 per game.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

1Thibaut Courtois

Real Madrid

close

Position

Goalkeeper

Age

34 (11/5/1992)

Nationality

Belgium

Height

201 cm

Market value

€15.0m

Contract until

30/6/2027

Season stats, all competitions

18Appearances

52Saves

5Clean sheets

18Goals conceded

0Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

2.89 saves per game, 1.00 goals conceded per game, clean sheet in 28% of games. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

18Álvaro Carreras

Real Madrid

close

Position

Defender

Age

23 (23/3/2003)

Nationality

Spain

Height

185 cm

Market value

€50.0m

Contract until

30/6/2031

Season stats, all competitions

4Appearances

1Goals

0Assists

1Shots

1Shots on target

2Fouls committed

2Fouls won

0Offsides

2Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.25 goals per game, 0.25 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

IK

16Ibrahima Konaté

Real Madrid

close

Position

Defender

Age

27

Nationality

France

Height

193 cm

Season stats, all competitions

12Appearances

0Goals

1Assists

7Shots

1Shots on target

0.3xG

0.2xA

0.3npxG (no penalties)

2Key passes

15Fouls committed

4Fouls won

0Offsides

5Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.08 assists per game, 0.58 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

22Antonio Rüdiger

Real Madrid

close

Position

Defender

Age

33 (3/3/1993)

Nationality

Germany, Sierra Leone

Height

191 cm

Market value

€6.0m

Contract until

30/6/2027

Season stats, all competitions

6Appearances

2Goals

0Assists

5Shots

3Shots on target

0.2xG

0.1xA

0.2npxG (no penalties)

1Key passes

4Fouls committed

2Fouls won

0Offsides

1Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.33 goals per game, 0.83 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

24Denzel Dumfries

Real Madrid

close

Position

Defender

Age

30 (18/4/1996)

Nationality

Netherlands, Aruba

Height

188 cm

Market value

€25.0m

Contract until

30/6/2030

Joined from

Inter Milan, 5/7/2026, €20.00m

Season stats, all competitions

19Appearances

0Goals

3Assists

18Shots

7Shots on target

0.6xG

0.2xA

0.6npxG (no penalties)

4Key passes

20Fouls committed

10Fouls won

6Offsides

2Yellow cards

1Red cards

How the season reads

0.16 assists per game, 0.95 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

14Aurélien Tchouaméni

Real Madrid

close

Position

Midfielder

Age

26 (27/1/2000)

Nationality

France, Cameroon

Height

188 cm

Market value

€70.0m

Contract until

30/6/2028

Season stats, all competitions

11Appearances

0Goals

1Assists

10Shots

1Shots on target

0.1xG

0.3xA

0.1npxG (no penalties)

4Key passes

6Fouls committed

8Fouls won

0Offsides

2Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.09 assists per game, 0.91 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

15Arda Güler

Real Madrid

close

Position

Midfielder

Age

21 (25/2/2005)

Nationality

Türkiye

Height

175 cm

Market value

€100.0m

Contract until

30/6/2029

Season stats, all competitions

13Appearances

2Goals

5Assists

43Shots

15Shots on target

2.1xG

4.3xA

2.1npxG (no penalties)

31Key passes

11Fouls committed

44Fouls won

2Offsides

4Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.15 goals per game, 0.38 assists per game, 3.31 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

7Vinícius Júnior

Real Madrid

close

Position

Forward

Age

26 (12/7/2000)

Nationality

Brazil, Spain

Height

175 cm

Market value

€130.0m

Contract until

30/6/2032

Season stats, all competitions

21Appearances

7Goals

6Assists

57Shots

27Shots on target

3.6xG

2.5xA

3.6npxG (no penalties)

13Key passes

22Fouls committed

46Fouls won

10Offsides

2Yellow cards

1Red cards

How the season reads

0.33 goals per game, 0.29 assists per game, 2.71 shots per game, scores 3.4 more goals than the xG suggests. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

5Jude Bellingham

Real Madrid

close

Position

Midfielder

Age

23 (29/6/2003)

Nationality

England, Ireland

Height

185 cm

Market value

€160.0m

Contract until

30/6/2029

Season stats, all competitions

20Appearances

11Goals

7Assists

55Shots

27Shots on target

1.7xG

3.4xA

1.7npxG (no penalties)

18Key passes

24Fouls committed

57Fouls won

3Offsides

4Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.55 goals per game, 0.35 assists per game, 2.75 shots per game, scores 9.4 more goals than the xG suggests. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

FV

8Federico Valverde

Real Madrid

close

Position

Midfielder

Age

28

Nationality

Uruguay

Height

183 cm

Season stats, all competitions

15Appearances

2Goals

2Assists

25Shots

6Shots on target

0.3xG

1.0xA

0.3npxG (no penalties)

8Key passes

6Fouls committed

4Fouls won

0Offsides

0Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.13 goals per game, 0.13 assists per game, 1.67 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

KM

10Kylian Mbappé

Real Madrid

close

Position

Forward

Age

27

Nationality

France

Height

178 cm

Season stats, all competitions

22Appearances

21Goals

6Assists

106Shots

58Shots on target

15Fouls committed

22Fouls won

23Offsides

2Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.95 goals per game, 0.27 assists per game, 4.82 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

26Maarten Vandevoordt

RB Leipzig

close

Position

Goalkeeper

Age

24 (26/2/2002)

Nationality

Belgium

Height

193 cm

Market value

€15.0m

Contract until

30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

9Appearances

39Saves

5Clean sheets

13Goals conceded

0Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

4.33 saves per game, 1.44 goals conceded per game, clean sheet in 56% of games. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

DR

22David Raum

RB Leipzig

close

Position

Defender

Age

28

Nationality

Germany

Height

180 cm

Season stats, all competitions

11Appearances

0Goals

0Assists

10Shots

4Shots on target

12Fouls committed

3Fouls won

0Offsides

1Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.91 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

CL

23Castello Lukeba

RB Leipzig

close

Position

Defender

Age

23

Nationality

France

Height

183 cm

Season stats, all competitions

6Appearances

0Goals

0Assists

2Shots

0Shots on target

2Fouls committed

3Fouls won

0Offsides

1Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.33 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

4Willi Orbán

RB Leipzig

close

Position

Defender

Age

33 (3/11/1992)

Nationality

Hungary, Germany

Height

185 cm

Market value

€5.0m

Contract until

30/6/2027

Season stats, all competitions

17Appearances

2Goals

1Assists

24Shots

4Shots on target

12Fouls committed

14Fouls won

2Offsides

2Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.12 goals per game, 0.06 assists per game, 1.41 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

17Ridle Baku

RB Leipzig

close

Position

Defender

Age

28 (8/4/1998)

Nationality

Germany, DR Congo

Height

175 cm

Market value

€12.0m

Contract until

30/6/2027

Season stats, all competitions

7Appearances

3Goals

0Assists

10Shots

5Shots on target

6Fouls committed

11Fouls won

0Offsides

0Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.43 goals per game, 1.43 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

21Neil El Aynaoui

RB Leipzig

close

Position

Midfielder

Age

25 (2/7/2001)

Nationality

Morocco, France

Height

185 cm

Market value

€30.0m

Contract until

30/6/2027

Season stats, all competitions

25Appearances

2Goals

1Assists

35Shots

9Shots on target

39Fouls committed

38Fouls won

0Offsides

3Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.08 goals per game, 0.04 assists per game, 1.40 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

6Ezechiel Banzuzi

RB Leipzig

close

Position

Midfielder

Age

21 (16/2/2005)

Nationality

DR Congo, Netherlands

Height

191 cm

Market value

€22.0m

Contract until

30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

11Appearances

2Goals

5Assists

32Shots

8Shots on target

19Fouls committed

11Fouls won

0Offsides

2Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.18 goals per game, 0.45 assists per game, 2.91 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

7Antonio Nusa

RB Leipzig

close

Position

Midfielder

Age

21 (17/4/2005)

Nationality

Norway, Nigeria

Height

183 cm

Market value

€45.0m

Contract until

30/6/2029

Season stats, all competitions

20Appearances

6Goals

5Assists

44Shots

18Shots on target

11Fouls committed

32Fouls won

5Offsides

4Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.30 goals per game, 0.25 assists per game, 2.20 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

28Christopher Nkunku

RB Leipzig

close

Position

Forward

Age

28 (14/11/1997)

Nationality

France, DR Congo

Height

178 cm

Market value

€25.0m

Contract until

30/6/2027

Season stats, all competitions

5Appearances

4Goals

2Assists

15Shots

7Shots on target

8Fouls committed

10Fouls won

0Offsides

1Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.80 goals per game, 0.40 assists per game, 3.00 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

BG

10Brajan Gruda

RB Leipzig

close

Position

Forward

Age

22

Nationality

Germany

Height

178 cm

Season stats, all competitions

7Appearances

2Goals

1Assists

18Shots

8Shots on target

8Fouls committed

9Fouls won

1Offsides

0Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.29 goals per game, 0.14 assists per game, 2.57 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

40Rômulo

RB Leipzig

close

Position

Forward

Age

24 (8/2/2002)

Nationality

Brazil

Height

193 cm

Market value

€30.0m

Contract until

30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

3Appearances

1Goals

0Assists

6Shots

3Shots on target

1Fouls committed

6Fouls won

1Offsides

0Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.33 goals per game, 2.00 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Next matches of Real Madrid

25/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayBarcelona

1/11/2026 · ESP.1AwayRacing Santander

7/11/2026 · ESP.1AwayValencia

Next matches of RB Leipzig

24/10/2026 · GER.1HomeSV Elversberg

31/10/2026 · GER.1AwaySchalke 04

7/11/2026 · GER.1HomeFC Augsburg

Our model gives Real Madrid win 80%, draw 12%, RB Leipzig win 8%. over 2.5 goals 81%. both teams to score 63%. expected goals 3.27 - 1.05. largest gap to the market: draw (0 points). Estimates, not guarantees.