Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
1 LilleX2 Galatasaray
SELECTION
FIRST
LATEST
FAIR ODDS NOW
DRIFT
Lille (1)
42.4%
37.5%
2.67
trending_down-4.9 pp
Draw (X)
25.8%
27.7%
3.61
trending_up+1.9 pp
Galatasaray (2)
31.8%
34.8%
2.88
trending_up+3.0 pp
token
Algorithmic Value
FREE
PRIMARY PICK68%
1X (Lille or draw)
Our probability: 68%.
Indicative odds: 1.40
scatter_plot
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Lille 1 - 1 Galatasaray
PROBABILITY
10.9%
table_chart
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Exp. corners 8.8Exp. cards 4.1
swords
Match result (1X2)
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Lille
43%2.312.25
Draw
24%4.083.70
Galatasaray
32%3.103.00
shield
Double chance
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Lille or draw
68%1.48—
Galatasaray or draw
57%1.76—
Either team wins (no draw)
76%1.32—
sports_soccer
Total goals
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
81%1.231.15
Under 1.5 goals
19%5.334.50
Over 2.5 goals
59%1.701.62
Under 2.5 goals
41%2.442.30
Over 3.5 goals
37%2.742.40
Under 3.5 goals
63%1.581.55
sync_alt
Both teams to score
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
61%1.63—
Not both score (NG)
39%2.58—
flag
Corners
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 7.5 corners
61%1.641.33
Under 7.5 corners
39%2.573.25
Over 8.5 corners
50%2.021.61
Under 8.5 corners
50%1.982.20
Over 9.5 corners
39%2.592.00
Under 9.5 corners
61%1.631.72
Over 10.5 corners
29%3.452.62
Under 10.5 corners
71%1.411.44
Over 11.5 corners
21%4.783.75
Under 11.5 corners
79%1.261.25
Over 12.5 corners
15%6.845.50
Under 12.5 corners
85%1.171.14
style
Cards (yellow + red)
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 cards
90%1.11—
Under 1.5 cards
10%10.49—
Over 2.5 cards
77%1.30—
Under 2.5 cards
23%4.37—
Over 3.5 cards
59%1.701.50
Under 3.5 cards
41%2.432.35
Over 4.5 cards
40%2.512.20
Under 4.5 cards
60%1.661.60
Over 5.5 cards
24%4.12—
Under 5.5 cards
76%1.32—
Over 6.5 cards
14%7.38—
Under 6.5 cards
86%1.16—
layers
Bet builder ideas
Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.
BUILDER36%
add_circleLille
add_circleOver 1.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.54
history
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking
analytics
What our model says vs what the market says
Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.
Home win (1)
43%Market 43%
Draw (X)
24%Market 25%
Away win (2)
32%Market 32%
Over 2.5 goals
59%Market 59%
Both teams to score
61%Market: —
Expected goals
1.7 - 1.4
Most likely final scores
Most likely: Lille 1 - 1 Galatasaray (10.9%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.
1 - 110.9%
2 - 19.0%
1 - 07.8%
1 - 27.6%
0 - 16.6%
Every score
Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.
Season stats, all competitions. Hover or tap a player.
Lille 4-3-3: Berke Özer, Maxima Goffi, Calvin Verdonk, Nabil Bentaleb, Nathan Ngoy, Alexsandro, Ngal'ayel Mukau, Benjamin André, Hákon Haraldsson, Dilane Bakwa, Soriba Diaoune
Galatasaray 4-2-3-1: Ugurcan Çakir, Roland Sallai, Ismail Jakobs, Gabriel Gomes, Davinson Sánchez, Abdülkerim Bardakçi, Yunus Akgün, Lucas Torreira, Alexey Batrakov, Baris Alper Yilmaz, Victor Osimhen
Player value glow€0€120m+
Lille4-3-3€137.0m
#
Player
Age
Apps
Goals
Assists
xG
Value
Starting XI
1
26
8
4
26
–
€12.0m
38
18
1
0
0
0.1
€1.0m
24
29
4
0
0
0.0
€2.5m
6
31
13
0
2
0.3
€4.5m
3
23
18
0
0
0.0
€25.0m
4
27
8
1
0
0.0
€15.0m
17
21
14
0
0
0.1
€15.0m
21
36
5
0
0
0.3
–
10
23
14
1
2
0.6
€30.0m
7
24
3
2
1
0.7
€28.0m
35
19
–
–
–
–
€4.0m
Substitutes
28
30
2
0
1
0.1
€5.0m
26
19
–
–
–
–
€2.5m
23
24
1
0
1
0.0
€1.2m
50
18
–
–
–
–
–
9
40
4
1
2
1.7
€900k
15
29
7
0
0
0.2
€7.0m
19
22
6
1
0
0.1
€10.0m
2
20
4
0
0
0.0
€3.0m
12
26
27
0
0
0.0
€7.5m
14
23
3
0
2
0.0
–
Galatasaray4-2-3-1€79.0m
#
Player
Age
Apps
Goals
Assists
xG
Value
Starting XI
1
30
14
2
33
–
–
7
29
10
1
0
0.0
–
4
27
14
0
2
0.0
€8.0m
8
27
8
2
2
0.0
–
6
30
20
2
0
0.0
€16.0m
42
32
13
2
0
0.0
–
11
26
11
2
0
0.0
€18.0m
34
30
10
1
2
0.0
€9.0m
83
21
11
2
4
0.0
€28.0m
53
26
12
5
1
0.0
–
45
27
10
10
5
0.0
–
Substitutes
73
19
–
–
–
–
€1.0m
21
22
6
1
0
0.0
€10.0m
90
25
4
1
1
0.0
–
24
22
3
0
0
0.0
–
10
30
10
2
1
0.0
€15.0m
20
35
–
–
–
–
€1.5m
18
22
7
0
0
0.0
–
17
26
7
0
2
0.0
–
99
33
5
1
0
0.0
€3.5m
74
19
4
0
2
0.0
€6.0m
3
21
–
–
–
–
€18.0m
19
35
–
–
–
–
€200k
Season stats, all competitions. Value: Transfermarkt. Click a player for the full card.
Our model gives Lille win 43%, draw 24%, Galatasaray win 32%. over 2.5 goals 59%. both teams to score 61%. expected goals 1.66 - 1.40. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.
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