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Arsenal vs Bayern Munich prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Bayern Munich vs Arsenal, 2026-10-21, UEFA Champions League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE/2026-10-21
stadiumUEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE•19:00 GMT
scheduleKICKOFF IN:
--:--:--
Bayern MunichHOME

Bayern Munich

VS19:00 GMT

Arsenal

ArsenalAWAY
monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.16

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

61%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

62%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

model_training
ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 10.5 corners

MODEL PROBABILITY

67%

ODDS

1.50

All Tips
query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

20%28%35%43%50%05:0009:0011:3014:00
1 Bayern MunichX2 Arsenal
SELECTIONFIRSTLATESTFAIR ODDS NOWDRIFT
Bayern Munich (1)46.4%43.3%2.31trending_down-3.1 pp
Draw (X)24.4%25%3.99trending_up+0.7 pp
Arsenal (2)29.3%31.7%3.15trending_up+2.5 pp
token

Algorithmic Value

FREE
PRIMARY PICK67%

Under 10.5 corners

Expected corners: Bayern Munich 5.5, Arsenal 3.7, total 9.2 (line 10.5).

Corners-for rate vs average: Bayern Munich x1.31, Arsenal x1.06 (sample 25 and 25 equivalent matches).

Odds: 1.50
scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Bayern Munich 1 - 1 Arsenal

PROBABILITY

10.4%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.2Exp. cards 3.3
swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Bayern Munich
47%2.122.05
Draw
24%4.223.90
Arsenal
29%3.433.25
shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Bayern Munich or draw
71%1.41—
Arsenal or draw
53%1.89—
Either team wins (no draw)
76%1.31—
sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
83%1.211.14
Under 1.5 goals
17%5.774.70
Over 2.5 goals
61%1.631.57
Under 2.5 goals
39%2.582.35
Over 3.5 goals
39%2.572.35
Under 3.5 goals
61%1.641.60
sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
62%1.60—
Not both score (NG)
38%2.66—
flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 7.5 corners
65%1.531.30
Under 7.5 corners
35%2.873.40
Over 8.5 corners
54%1.851.53
Under 8.5 corners
46%2.172.37
Over 9.5 corners
43%2.331.83
Under 9.5 corners
57%1.751.83
Over 10.5 corners
33%3.032.50
Under 10.5 corners
67%1.491.50
Over 11.5 corners
24%4.103.40
Under 11.5 corners
76%1.321.30
Over 12.5 corners
17%5.754.50
Under 12.5 corners
83%1.211.18
style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 cards
83%1.20—
Under 1.5 cards
17%6.02—
Over 2.5 cards
64%1.561.40
Under 2.5 cards
36%2.782.70
Over 3.5 cards
43%2.341.95
Under 3.5 cards
57%1.751.75
Over 4.5 cards
25%4.01—
Under 4.5 cards
75%1.33—
Over 5.5 cards
13%7.61—
Under 5.5 cards
87%1.15—
Over 6.5 cards
7%14.29—
Under 6.5 cards
93%1.08—
layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER40%
add_circleBayern Munich
add_circleOver 1.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.28
history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich

Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · goals 20-7

WWDDW
WHRB Leipzig6-1
DAViking FK3-3
DAFC Augsburg2-2
WH1. FC Union Berlin7-0
WASV Elversberg2-1
Arsenal

Arsenal

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · goals 10-6

WLWWW
WANottingham Forest1-0
WHLille3-0
WHLeeds United2-1
LABrighton & Hove Albion0-3
WAIpswich Town4-2

Head-to-head

2025-11-26
Arsenal3 - 1Bayern Munich
2024-04-17
Bayern Munich1 - 0Arsenal
2024-04-09
Arsenal2 - 2Bayern Munich
2019-07-18
Arsenal2 - 1Bayern Munich
2017-07-19
Bayern Munich1 - 1Arsenal
compare_arrows

Team comparison

VS
#1Power Index 88.2
Power Ranking
#3 ▲1Power Index 87.2
€1.04bn1st in the league
Squad value
€1.33bn2nd in the league
Vincent Kompanysince 1 Jul 2024 · 120 games · 2.43 pts/game
Head coach
Mikel Artetasince 22 Dec 2019 · 363 games · 2.04 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)
47%Market 47%
Draw (X)
24%Market 24%
Away win (2)
29%Market 29%
Over 2.5 goals
61%Market 61%
Both teams to score
62%Market: —
Expected goals
1.8 - 1.4

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Bayern Munich 1 - 1 Arsenal (10.4%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

  1. 1 - 110.4%
  2. 2 - 19.3%
  3. 1 - 07.6%
  4. 1 - 27.1%
  5. 2 - 06.8%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Arsenal
Goals scored by Bayern Munich
01234504.25.84.01.80.60.217.610.47.13.31.10.326.89.36.42.91.00.334.15.63.81.70.60.241.82.51.70.80.30.150.70.90.60.30.10.0

Lineups

ProbableUpdated 21/10 20:30 · AI Goal Lab estimate

Predicted from the latest reports. It changes when the official lineup is out.

Bayern Munich00Arsenal0'
Glow = player market value€0€120m+

Season stats, all competitions. Hover or tap a player.

  • Bayern Munich 4-2-3-1: Manuel Neuer, Alphonso Davies, Dayot Upamecano, Jonathan Tah, Konrad Laimer, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Joshua Kimmich, Luis Díaz, Ismael Saibari, Lennart Karl, Harry Kane
  • Arsenal 4-2-3-1: David Raya, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Gabriel Magalhães, Ezri Konsa, Jurriën Timber, Declan Rice, Bruno Guimarães, Noni Madueke, Martin Ødegaard, Bukayo Saka, Viktor Gyökeres

Form

Bayern Munich
Last 5, most recent first
WDWWD
Goals per game, for / against3.4 / 0.8
Home, W-D-L (last 10)3-0-0
Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-2-0
Arsenal
Last 5, most recent first
WWLWW
Goals per game, for / against1.4 / 1.0
Home, W-D-L (last 10)3-0-0
Away, W-D-L (last 10)3-0-1

Form and team news

Bayern Munich
3 W2 D0 L3.4 for0.8 against

Bayern Munich have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 3.4 and conceding 0.8 per game.

Arsenal
4 W0 D1 L1.4 for1.0 against

Arsenal have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.0 per game.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

1Manuel Neuer
Bayern Munich
Position
Goalkeeper
Age
40
Nationality
Germany
Height
193 cm

Season stats, all competitions

10Appearances
17Saves
3Clean sheets
9Goals conceded
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

1.70 saves per game, 0.90 goals conceded per game, clean sheet in 30% of games. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Alphonso Davies, Defender Bayern Munich
19Alphonso Davies
Bayern Munich
Position
Defender
Age
25 (2/11/2000)
Nationality
Canada, Liberia
Height
185 cm
Market value
€45.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

5Appearances
1Goals
2Assists
5Shots
1Shots on target
0.2xG
1.9xA
0.2npxG (no penalties)
13Key passes
2Fouls committed
8Fouls won
2Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.20 goals per game, 0.40 assists per game, 1.00 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Dayot Upamecano, Defender Bayern Munich
2Dayot Upamecano
Bayern Munich
Position
Defender
Age
27 (27/10/1998)
Nationality
France, Guinea-Bissau
Height
185 cm
Market value
€75.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

18Appearances
1Goals
1Assists
12Shots
4Shots on target
1.4xG
0.4xA
1.4npxG (no penalties)
4Key passes
17Fouls committed
6Fouls won
0Offsides
3Yellow cards
2Red cards

How the season reads

0.06 goals per game, 0.06 assists per game, 0.67 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Jonathan Tah, Defender Bayern Munich
4Jonathan Tah
Bayern Munich
Position
Defender
Age
30 (11/2/1996)
Nationality
Germany, Cote d'Ivoire
Height
196 cm
Market value
€28.0m
Contract until
30/6/2029

Season stats, all competitions

18Appearances
1Goals
0Assists
7Shots
4Shots on target
0.7xG
0.0xA
0.7npxG (no penalties)
0Key passes
24Fouls committed
4Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.06 goals per game, 0.39 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Konrad Laimer, Midfielder Bayern Munich
27Konrad Laimer
Bayern Munich
Position
Midfielder
Age
29 (27/5/1997)
Nationality
Austria
Height
180 cm
Market value
€32.0m
Contract until
30/6/2029

Season stats, all competitions

12Appearances
0Goals
2Assists
9Shots
4Shots on target
0.5xG
0.3xA
0.5npxG (no penalties)
3Key passes
18Fouls committed
11Fouls won
3Offsides
2Yellow cards
1Red cards

How the season reads

0.17 assists per game, 0.75 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Aleksandar Pavlovic, Midfielder Bayern Munich
45Aleksandar Pavlovic
Bayern Munich
Position
Midfielder
Age
22 (3/5/2004)
Nationality
Germany, Serbia
Height
188 cm
Market value
€90.0m
Contract until
30/6/2029

Season stats, all competitions

15Appearances
1Goals
2Assists
18Shots
5Shots on target
1.2xG
1.6xA
1.2npxG (no penalties)
14Key passes
30Fouls committed
15Fouls won
0Offsides
2Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.07 goals per game, 0.13 assists per game, 1.20 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Joshua Kimmich, Midfielder Bayern Munich
6Joshua Kimmich
Bayern Munich
Position
Midfielder
Age
31 (8/2/1995)
Nationality
Germany
Height
178 cm
Market value
€35.0m
Contract until
30/6/2029

Season stats, all competitions

19Appearances
0Goals
7Assists
19Shots
4Shots on target
0.1xG
2.3xA
0.1npxG (no penalties)
10Key passes
7Fouls committed
23Fouls won
1Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.37 assists per game, 1.00 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Luis Díaz, Forward Bayern Munich
14Luis Díaz
Bayern Munich
Position
Forward
Age
29 (13/1/1997)
Nationality
Colombia
Height
180 cm
Market value
€70.0m
Contract until
30/6/2029

Season stats, all competitions

17Appearances
4Goals
2Assists
45Shots
18Shots on target
3.4xG
1.9xA
3.4npxG (no penalties)
13Key passes
20Fouls committed
27Fouls won
20Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.24 goals per game, 0.12 assists per game, 2.65 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Ismael Saibari, Midfielder Bayern Munich
34Ismael Saibari
Bayern Munich
Position
Midfielder
Age
25 (28/1/2001)
Nationality
Morocco, Belgium
Height
185 cm
Market value
€55.0m
Contract until
30/6/2031
Joined from
PSV Eindhoven, 1/7/2026, €50.00m

Season stats, all competitions

21Appearances
8Goals
2Assists
54Shots
20Shots on target
2.9xG
1.7xA
2.9npxG (no penalties)
7Key passes
27Fouls committed
25Fouls won
14Offsides
2Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.38 goals per game, 0.10 assists per game, 2.57 shots per game, scores 5.1 more goals than the xG suggests. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Lennart Karl, Midfielder Bayern Munich
42Lennart Karl
Bayern Munich
Position
Midfielder
Age
18 (22/2/2008)
Nationality
Germany
Height
168 cm
Market value
€60.0m
Contract until
30/6/2029

Season stats, all competitions

7Appearances
4Goals
2Assists
24Shots
11Shots on target
0.6xG
0.3xA
0.6npxG (no penalties)
4Key passes
2Fouls committed
4Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.57 goals per game, 0.29 assists per game, 3.43 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Harry Kane, Forward Bayern Munich
9Harry Kane
Bayern Munich
Position
Forward
Age
33 (28/7/1993)
Nationality
England, Ireland
Height
188 cm
Market value
€60.0m
Contract until
30/6/2027

Season stats, all competitions

21Appearances
21Goals
6Assists
87Shots
38Shots on target
5.5xG
3.1xA
4.7npxG (no penalties)
14Key passes
15Fouls committed
22Fouls won
5Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

1.00 goals per game, 0.29 assists per game, 4.14 shots per game, scores 15.5 more goals than the xG suggests. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

David Raya, Goalkeeper Arsenal
1David Raya
Arsenal
Position
Goalkeeper
Age
31 (15/9/1995)
Nationality
Spain
Height
183 cm
Market value
€30.0m
Contract until
30/6/2028

Season stats, all competitions

10Appearances
22Saves
5Clean sheets
7Goals conceded
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

2.20 saves per game, 0.70 goals conceded per game, clean sheet in 50% of games. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Myles Lewis-Skelly, Defender Arsenal
49Myles Lewis-Skelly
Arsenal
Position
Defender
Age
20 (26/9/2006)
Nationality
England, Barbados
Height
178 cm
Market value
€45.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

13Appearances
0Goals
2Assists
10Shots
3Shots on target
0.2xG
0.1xA
0.2npxG (no penalties)
2Key passes
22Fouls committed
27Fouls won
0Offsides
3Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.15 assists per game, 0.77 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

6Gabriel Magalhães
Arsenal
Position
Defender
Age
28
Nationality
Brazil
Height
191 cm

Season stats, all competitions

16Appearances
0Goals
1Assists
10Shots
4Shots on target
14Fouls committed
13Fouls won
1Offsides
4Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.06 assists per game, 0.63 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Ezri Konsa, Defender Arsenal
15Ezri Konsa
Arsenal
Position
Defender
Age
28 (23/10/1997)
Nationality
England, DR Congo
Height
183 cm
Market value
€45.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030
Joined from
Aston Villa, 21/8/2026, €59.60m

Season stats, all competitions

16Appearances
1Goals
0Assists
6Shots
2Shots on target
17Fouls committed
31Fouls won
2Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.06 goals per game, 0.38 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Jurriën Timber, Defender Arsenal
12Jurriën Timber
Arsenal
Position
Defender
Age
25 (17/6/2001)
Nationality
Netherlands, Curacao
Height
178 cm
Market value
€70.0m
Contract until
30/6/2028

Season stats, all competitions

2Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
1Shots
0Shots on target
0.0xG
0.1xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
1Key passes
4Fouls committed
2Fouls won
1Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards
41Declan Rice
Arsenal
Position
Midfielder
Age
27
Nationality
England
Height
188 cm

Season stats, all competitions

16Appearances
2Goals
5Assists
14Shots
4Shots on target
0.2xG
1.1xA
0.2npxG (no penalties)
11Key passes
11Fouls committed
2Fouls won
2Offsides
3Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.13 goals per game, 0.31 assists per game, 0.88 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Bruno Guimarães, Midfielder Arsenal
39Bruno Guimarães
Arsenal
Position
Midfielder
Age
28 (16/11/1997)
Nationality
Brazil, Spain
Height
183 cm
Market value
€70.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030
Joined from
Newcastle United, 8/8/2026, €87.50m

Season stats, all competitions

12Appearances
4Goals
4Assists
21Shots
7Shots on target
0.1xG
0.0xA
0.1npxG (no penalties)
0Key passes
11Fouls committed
22Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.33 goals per game, 0.33 assists per game, 1.75 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Noni Madueke, Forward Arsenal
20Noni Madueke
Arsenal
Position
Forward
Age
24 (10/3/2002)
Nationality
England, Nigeria
Height
183 cm
Market value
€50.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

10Appearances
1Goals
1Assists
20Shots
5Shots on target
0.2xG
0.7xA
0.2npxG (no penalties)
7Key passes
7Fouls committed
7Fouls won
4Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.10 goals per game, 0.10 assists per game, 2.00 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

8Martin Ødegaard
Arsenal
Position
Midfielder
Age
27
Nationality
Norway
Height
178 cm

Season stats, all competitions

21Appearances
5Goals
10Assists
31Shots
13Shots on target
15Fouls committed
27Fouls won
0Offsides
4Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.24 goals per game, 0.48 assists per game, 1.48 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Bukayo Saka, Forward Arsenal
7Bukayo Saka
Arsenal
Position
Forward
Age
25 (5/9/2001)
Nationality
England, Nigeria
Height
178 cm
Market value
€110.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

13Appearances
9Goals
4Assists
51Shots
22Shots on target
4.6xG
0.5xA
3.8npxG (no penalties)
10Key passes
10Fouls committed
31Fouls won
12Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.69 goals per game, 0.31 assists per game, 3.92 shots per game, scores 4.4 more goals than the xG suggests. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Viktor Gyökeres, Forward Arsenal
14Viktor Gyökeres
Arsenal
Position
Forward
Age
28 (4/6/1998)
Nationality
Sweden, Hungary
Height
188 cm
Market value
€65.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

14Appearances
7Goals
2Assists
30Shots
15Shots on target
0.1xG
0.7xA
0.1npxG (no penalties)
4Key passes
15Fouls committed
21Fouls won
5Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.50 goals per game, 0.14 assists per game, 2.14 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Next matches of Bayern Munich

25/10/2026 · GER.1AwaySC Freiburg
31/10/2026 · GER.1HomeBorussia Dortmund
7/11/2026 · GER.1AwayMainz

Next matches of Arsenal

24/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeEverton
1/11/2026 · ENG.1AwayLiverpool
7/11/2026 · ENG.1HomeHull City
Bayern MunichArsenal

More matches on this day

Our model gives Bayern Munich win 47%, draw 24%, Arsenal win 29%. over 2.5 goals 61%. both teams to score 62%. expected goals 1.79 - 1.37. largest gap to the market: draw (0 points). Estimates, not guarantees.

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