Atlético Madrid vs VfB Stuttgart prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid, 2026-10-20, UEFA Champions League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

stadiumUEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE•19:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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VfB Stuttgart

VS19:00 GMT

Atlético Madrid

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.37

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MODEL OVER 2.5

65%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

66%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

Both teams to score (GG)

MODEL PROBABILITY

66%

ODDS

1.44

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 VfB StuttgartX2 Atlético Madrid

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
VfB Stuttgart (1)	29.9%	28.4%	3.52	trending_down-1.5 pp
Draw (X)	24.5%	25.1%	3.99	trending_up+0.6 pp
Atlético Madrid (2)	45.6%	46.5%	2.15	trending_up+0.9 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK66%

Both teams to score (GG)

Our probability: 66%.

Indicative odds: 1.44

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

VfB Stuttgart 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid

PROBABILITY

9.6%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

VfB Stuttgart

30%3.283.20

Draw

23%4.373.90

Atlético Madrid

47%2.142.10

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

VfB Stuttgart or draw

53%1.87—

Atlético Madrid or draw

70%1.44—

Either team wins (no draw)

77%1.30—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

85%1.171.13

Under 1.5 goals

15%6.794.80

Over 2.5 goals

65%1.531.45

Under 2.5 goals

35%2.902.60

Over 3.5 goals

44%2.302.10

Under 3.5 goals

56%1.771.73

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

66%1.52—

Not both score (NG)

34%2.94—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER40%

add_circleAtlético Madrid

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.33

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Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

VfB Stuttgart

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · goals 13-1

WWWWL

LAHamburg SV0-1

WASlovan Bratislava3-0

WASC Paderborn 072-0

WHSpVgg Greuther Fürth5-0

WH1. FC Heidenheim 18463-0

Atlético Madrid

Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · goals 11-2

WWWWW

WAEspanyol1-0

WHManchester United2-0

WAAlavés2-1

WHReal Madrid2-1

WHOsasuna4-0

Head-to-head

2018-08-05

VfB Stuttgart1 - 1Atlético Madrid

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Team comparison

VfB Stuttgart

VS

Atlético Madrid

#25 ▲2Power Index 69.6

Power Ranking

#13Power Index 78.3

€400m5th in the league

Squad value

€704m3rd in the league

Sebastian Hoeneßsince 3 Apr 2023 · 161 games · 1.81 pts/game

Head coach

Diego Simeonesince 23 Dec 2011 · 811 games · 1.98 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

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What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

30%Market 30%

Draw (X)

23%Market 24%

Away win (2)

47%Market 46%

Over 2.5 goals

65%Market 66%

Both teams to score

66%Market: —

Expected goals

1.5 - 1.9

Most likely final scores

Most likely: VfB Stuttgart 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid (9.6%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 19.6%
2. 1 - 29.1%
3. 2 - 17.2%
4. 2 - 26.7%
5. 0 - 16.5%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Atlético Madrid

Goals scored by VfB Stuttgart

01234503.46.56.13.81.80.715.19.69.15.72.71.023.87.26.74.22.00.731.93.63.42.11.00.440.71.31.20.80.40.150.20.40.40.20.10.0

Next matches of VfB Stuttgart

23/10/2026 · GER.1HomeBorussia Mönchengladbach

31/10/2026 · GER.1AwayBayer Leverkusen

7/11/2026 · GER.1HomeWerder Bremen

Next matches of Atlético Madrid

24/10/2026 · ESP.1HomeDeportivo

31/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayLevante

8/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeBarcelona

Our model gives VfB Stuttgart win 30%, draw 23%, Atlético Madrid win 47%. over 2.5 goals 65%. both teams to score 66%. expected goals 1.49 - 1.88. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.