Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Liverpool vs Villarreal, 2026-10-20, UEFA Champions League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

stadiumUEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE•19:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Liverpool

VS19:00 GMT

Villarreal

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.38

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

66%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

59%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Over 2.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

66%

ODDS

1.45

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK66%

Over 2.5 goals

Our probability: 66%.

Odds: 1.45

1X2 / Double chance65%

1 (Liverpool)

Our probability: 65%.

Odds: 1.50

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Liverpool 2 - 1 Villarreal

PROBABILITY

9.7%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.3Exp. cards 3.8

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Liverpool

65%1.531.50

Draw

19%5.254.70

Villarreal

16%6.416.00

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Liverpool or draw

84%1.18—

Villarreal or draw

35%2.89—

Either team wins (no draw)

81%1.24—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

85%1.171.13

Under 1.5 goals

15%6.844.80

Over 2.5 goals

66%1.521.45

Under 2.5 goals

34%2.922.60

Over 3.5 goals

44%2.282.12

Under 3.5 goals

56%1.781.72

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

59%1.69—

Not both score (NG)

41%2.45—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

76%1.321.25

Under 7.5 corners

24%4.103.75

Over 8.5 corners

66%1.521.44

Under 8.5 corners

34%2.922.62

Over 9.5 corners

55%1.811.80

Under 9.5 corners

45%2.231.90

Over 10.5 corners

45%2.242.25

Under 10.5 corners

55%1.811.57

Over 11.5 corners

35%2.853.00

Under 11.5 corners

65%1.541.36

Over 12.5 corners

27%3.774.00

Under 12.5 corners

73%1.361.22

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

88%1.13—

Under 1.5 cards

12%8.44—

Over 2.5 cards

73%1.381.33

Under 2.5 cards

27%3.642.90

Over 3.5 cards

53%1.901.82

Under 3.5 cards

47%2.121.88

Over 4.5 cards

34%2.95—

Under 4.5 cards

66%1.51—

Over 5.5 cards

20%5.12—

Under 5.5 cards

80%1.24—

Over 6.5 cards

10%9.62—

Under 6.5 cards

90%1.12—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER49%

add_circleLiverpool

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.92

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Liverpool

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · goals 12-8

WWLWW

WABrentford2-1

WALASK Linz6-3

LHManchester City0-3

WAAFC Bournemouth1-0

WHTottenham Hotspur3-1

Villarreal

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 9-4

WWLWD

DHElche0-0

WHNapoli3-1

LAReal Madrid0-1

WHLevante3-1

WAMálaga3-1

Head-to-head

2022-05-03

Villarreal2 - 3Liverpool

2022-04-27

Liverpool2 - 0Villarreal

2016-05-05

Liverpool3 - 0Villarreal

2016-04-28

Villarreal1 - 0Liverpool

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Team comparison

Liverpool

VS

Villarreal

#7Power Index 81.9

Power Ranking

#29 ▲4Power Index 68.6

€1.03bn4th in the league

Squad value

€368m4th in the league

Andoni Iraolasince 1 Jul 2026 · 10 games · 2.10 pts/game

Head coach

Iñigo Pérezsince 1 Jul 2026 · 11 games · 1.09 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

65%Market 65%

Draw (X)

19%Market 20%

Away win (2)

16%Market 15%

Over 2.5 goals

66%Market 66%

Both teams to score

59%Market: —

Expected goals

2.3 - 1.1

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Liverpool 2 - 1 Villarreal (9.7%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 19.7%
2. 2 - 09.2%
3. 1 - 18.4%
4. 1 - 07.9%
5. 3 - 17.5%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Villarreal

Goals scored by Liverpool

01234503.43.61.90.70.20.017.98.44.41.60.40.129.29.75.11.80.50.137.17.54.01.40.40.144.14.42.30.80.20.051.92.01.10.40.10.0

Next matches of Liverpool

25/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeBrighton & Hove Albion

1/11/2026 · ENG.1HomeArsenal

8/11/2026 · ENG.1AwayCrystal Palace

Next matches of Villarreal

24/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayValencia

30/10/2026 · ESP.1HomeEspanyol

8/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeGetafe

Our model gives Liverpool win 65%, draw 19%, Villarreal win 16%. over 2.5 goals 66%. both teams to score 59%. expected goals 2.32 - 1.06. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.