FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven, 2026-10-20, UEFA Champions League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

stadiumUEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE•19:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

FC Porto

VS19:00 GMT

PSV Eindhoven

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.29

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

64%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

59%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

5

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 FC PortoX2 PSV Eindhoven

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
FC Porto (1)	61.5%	63.7%	1.57	trending_up+2.3 pp
Draw (X)	20.3%	20.3%	4.92	trending_flat+0.0 pp
PSV Eindhoven (2)	18.2%	15.9%	6.28	trending_down-2.3 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

FC Porto 2 - 1 PSV Eindhoven

PROBABILITY

9.8%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.8Exp. cards 3.7

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

FC Porto

63%1.591.56

Draw

20%4.984.70

PSV Eindhoven

17%5.825.25

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

FC Porto or draw

83%1.21—

PSV Eindhoven or draw

37%2.68—

Either team wins (no draw)

80%1.25—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

84%1.191.13

Under 1.5 goals

16%6.384.80

Over 2.5 goals

64%1.561.50

Under 2.5 goals

36%2.772.50

Over 3.5 goals

42%2.392.20

Under 3.5 goals

58%1.721.67

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

59%1.69—

Not both score (NG)

41%2.44—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

71%1.411.25

Under 7.5 corners

29%3.443.75

Over 8.5 corners

60%1.661.44

Under 8.5 corners

40%2.522.62

Over 9.5 corners

49%2.021.80

Under 9.5 corners

51%1.981.90

Over 10.5 corners

39%2.562.25

Under 10.5 corners

61%1.641.57

Over 11.5 corners

30%3.363.00

Under 11.5 corners

70%1.421.36

Over 12.5 corners

22%4.554.00

Under 12.5 corners

78%1.281.22

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

87%1.15—

Under 1.5 cards

13%7.57—

Over 2.5 cards

70%1.43—

Under 2.5 cards

30%3.33—

Over 3.5 cards

50%2.021.43

Under 3.5 cards

50%1.982.55

Over 4.5 cards

31%3.232.02

Under 4.5 cards

69%1.451.70

Over 5.5 cards

17%5.78—

Under 5.5 cards

83%1.21—

Over 6.5 cards

9%11.08—

Under 6.5 cards

91%1.10—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER46%

add_circleFC Porto

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.05

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

FC Porto

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · goals 11-8

LWWWL

LAReal Betis2-3

WAMaritimo2-1

WHBenfica3-1

WACasa Pia4-1

LHManchester City0-2

PSV Eindhoven

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 9-7

WLWLL

LAADO Den Haag1-2

LARB Leipzig0-1

WHHeerenveen2-0

LAFC Twente2-3

WHSparta Rotterdam4-1

Head-to-head

2016-07-21

PSV Eindhoven3 - 0FC Porto

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Team comparison

FC Porto

VS

PSV Eindhoven

#20 ▼1Power Index 74.4

Power Ranking

#23 ▼1Power Index 70.0

€472m1st in the league

Squad value

€307m1st in the league

Francesco Fariolisince 6 Jul 2025 · 64 games · 2.38 pts/game

Head coach

Peter Boszsince 1 Jul 2023 · 159 games · 2.18 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

63%Market 63%

Draw (X)

20%Market 20%

Away win (2)

17%Market 18%

Over 2.5 goals

64%Market 64%

Both teams to score

59%Market: —

Expected goals

2.2 - 1.1

Most likely final scores

Most likely: FC Porto 2 - 1 PSV Eindhoven (9.8%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 19.8%
2. 2 - 09.1%
3. 1 - 18.9%
4. 1 - 08.2%
5. 3 - 17.2%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by PSV Eindhoven

Goals scored by FC Porto

01234503.74.02.20.80.20.018.28.94.81.70.50.129.19.85.31.90.50.136.77.23.91.40.40.143.74.02.20.80.20.051.61.81.00.30.10.0

Next matches of FC Porto

24/10/2026 · POR.1AwayGil Vicente

31/10/2026 · POR.1HomeEstoril

8/11/2026 · POR.1AwayVitória de Guimaraes

Next matches of PSV Eindhoven

25/10/2026 · NED.1HomeFeyenoord Rotterdam

31/10/2026 · NED.1HomeWillem II

8/11/2026 · NED.1AwaySC Cambuur

Our model gives FC Porto win 63%, draw 20%, PSV Eindhoven win 17%. over 2.5 goals 64%. both teams to score 59%. expected goals 2.21 - 1.08. largest gap to the market: draw (0 points). Estimates, not guarantees.