Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven prediction, tips and odds
Latest match: PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen, 2026-10-09, Dutch Eredivisie, kickoff 21:00 Athens time
PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
4.40
MODEL OVER 2.5
81%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
69%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
4
No pick passes our filters for this match.
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
| SELECTION | FIRST | LATEST | FAIR ODDS NOW | DRIFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven (1) | 74.7% | 72.1% | 1.39 | trending_down-2.6 pp |
| Draw (X) | 13.5% | 14.5% | 6.92 | trending_up+1.0 pp |
| Heerenveen (2) | 11.8% | 13.4% | 7.45 | trending_up+1.6 pp |
Algorithmic Value
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
PSV Eindhoven 3 - 1 Heerenveen
8.0%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Corners
Cards (yellow + red)
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
PSV Eindhoven
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 16-7
FC Twente2-3
Sparta Rotterdam4-1
Shakhtar Donetsk1-1
Ajax Amsterdam3-1
FC Utrecht6-1
Heerenveen
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 8-7
Sparta Rotterdam4-0
Telstar0-0
AZ Alkmaar2-3
Willem II2-2
PEC Zwolle0-2Head-to-head
Team comparison
Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking
What our model says vs what the market says
Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.
Most likely final scores
Most likely: PSV Eindhoven 3 - 1 Heerenveen (8.0%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.
- 3 - 18.0%
- 2 - 17.6%
- 3 - 06.3%
- 4 - 16.2%
- 2 - 06.0%
Every score
Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.
Goals scored by HeerenveenNext matches of PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord RotterdamWillem II
SC CambuurNext matches of Heerenveen
ADO Den Haag
NEC NijmegenFeyenoord RotterdamMore matches on this day
Galatasaray
Moreirense
Borussia Dortmund
Lens
Waasland-Beveren
Málaga
Braga
Our model gives PSV Eindhoven win 74%, draw 14%, Heerenveen win 12%. over 2.5 goals 81%. both teams to score 69%. expected goals 3.13 - 1.27. largest gap to the market: PSV Eindhoven win (3 points). Estimates, not guarantees.