Gil Vicente vs Moreirense prediction, tips and odds
Latest match: Moreirense vs Gil Vicente, 2026-10-09, Portuguese Primeira Liga, kickoff 20:45 Athens time
PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
2.25
MODEL OVER 2.5
39%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
46%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
5
Under 9.5 corners
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
| SELECTION | FIRST | LATEST | FAIR ODDS NOW | DRIFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense (1) | 28.1% | 28.6% | 3.50 | trending_up+0.5 pp |
| Draw (X) | 30.9% | 30.4% | 3.29 | trending_down-0.5 pp |
| Gil Vicente (2) | 41% | 41% | 2.44 | trending_flat+0.0 pp |
Algorithmic Value
Under 9.5 corners
Expected corners: Moreirense 3.7, Gil Vicente 4.6, total 8.3 (line 9.5).
Corners-for rate vs average: Moreirense x0.70, Gil Vicente x0.97 (sample 25 and 25 equivalent matches).
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Moreirense 1 - 1 Gil Vicente
13.2%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Corners
Cards (yellow + red)
Bet builder ideas
Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Moreirense
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 6-8
Vitória de Guimaraes1-1
Maritimo3-1
Benfica0-4
FC Porto1-2
Casa Pia1-0
Gil Vicente
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 4-5
Maritimo1-1Benfica1-3
Académico de Viseu0-1
FC Famalicao0-0Casa Pia2-0Head-to-head
Team comparison
Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking
What our model says vs what the market says
Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.
Most likely final scores
Most likely: Moreirense 1 - 1 Gil Vicente (13.2%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.
- 1 - 113.2%
- 0 - 113.0%
- 1 - 010.7%
- 0 - 010.6%
- 1 - 28.1%
Every score
Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.
Goals scored by Gil VicenteNext matches of Moreirense
Estoril
Estrela
Sporting CPNext matches of Gil Vicente
FC PortoVitória de Guimaraes
Santa ClaraMore matches on this day
Galatasaray
PSV Eindhoven
Borussia Dortmund
Lens
Waasland-Beveren
Málaga
BragaOur model gives Moreirense win 30%, draw 29%, Gil Vicente win 41%. over 2.5 goals 39%. both teams to score 46%. expected goals 1.01 - 1.23. largest gap to the market: Moreirense win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.