Cagliari vs Monza prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Monza vs Cagliari, 2026-10-19, Italian Serie A, kickoff 19:30 Athens time

stadiumITALIAN SERIE A•16:30 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Monza

VS16:30 GMT

Cagliari

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.55

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

47%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

52%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

5

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 10.5 corners

MODEL PROBABILITY

70%

ODDS

1.45

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 MonzaX2 Cagliari

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Monza (1)	37.8%	36.9%	2.71	trending_down-0.9 pp
Draw (X)	30.3%	30.2%	3.31	trending_flat-0.1 pp
Cagliari (2)	31.9%	32.9%	3.04	trending_up+1.0 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK70%

Under 10.5 corners

Expected corners: Monza 5.0, Cagliari 3.9, total 8.9 (line 10.5).

Corners-for rate vs average: Monza x0.82, Cagliari x0.84 (sample 25 and 25 equivalent matches).

Odds: 1.45

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Monza 1 - 1 Cagliari

PROBABILITY

12.6%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.9Exp. cards 3.4

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Monza

41%2.442.45

Draw

27%3.663.05

Cagliari

32%3.152.90

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Monza or draw

68%1.47—

Cagliari or draw

59%1.69—

Either team wins (no draw)

73%1.38—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

73%1.381.30

Under 1.5 goals

27%3.663.15

Over 2.5 goals

47%2.132.07

Under 2.5 goals

53%1.881.75

Over 3.5 goals

25%3.953.30

Under 3.5 goals

75%1.341.28

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

52%1.92—

Not both score (NG)

48%2.08—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

62%1.61—

Under 7.5 corners

38%2.64—

Over 8.5 corners

51%1.981.52

Under 8.5 corners

49%2.022.30

Over 9.5 corners

40%2.521.95

Under 9.5 corners

60%1.661.75

Over 10.5 corners

30%3.342.50

Under 10.5 corners

70%1.431.45

Over 11.5 corners

22%4.60—

Under 11.5 corners

78%1.28—

Over 12.5 corners

15%6.55—

Under 12.5 corners

85%1.18—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

84%1.19—

Under 1.5 cards

16%6.37—

Over 2.5 cards

66%1.521.35

Under 2.5 cards

34%2.912.85

Over 3.5 cards

44%2.251.85

Under 3.5 cards

56%1.801.85

Over 4.5 cards

26%3.79—

Under 4.5 cards

74%1.36—

Over 5.5 cards

14%7.09—

Under 5.5 cards

86%1.16—

Over 6.5 cards

7%14.01—

Under 6.5 cards

93%1.08—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Monza

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 9-12

LWLDL

LALazio1-3

DABrest2-2

LHCremonese2-3

WHSassuolo2-1

LALecce2-3

Cagliari

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 6-4

LWWWD

DHJuventus1-1

WAUdinese1-0

WAAtalanta2-1

WHLecce1-0

LHHellas Verona1-2

Head-to-head

2025-03-30

Cagliari3 - 0Monza

2025-01-05

Monza1 - 2Cagliari

2024-03-16

Monza1 - 0Cagliari

2023-11-26

Cagliari1 - 1Monza

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Team comparison

Monza

VS

Cagliari

#169 ▲3Power Index 42.8

Power Ranking

#132 ▲3Power Index 48.1

€113m19th in the league

Squad value

€142m16th in the league

Ivan Jurićsince 1 Jul 2026 · 8 games · 1.25 pts/game

Head coach

Fabio Pisacanesince 11 Jun 2025 · 49 games · 1.33 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

41%Market 38% +3

Draw (X)

27%Market 30% -3

Away win (2)

32%Market 32%

Over 2.5 goals

47%Market 46%

Both teams to score

52%Market: —

Expected goals

1.4 - 1.2

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Monza 1 - 1 Cagliari (12.6%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 112.6%
2. 1 - 010.7%
3. 0 - 19.2%
4. 2 - 18.7%
5. 0 - 07.8%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Cagliari

Goals scored by Monza

01234507.89.25.42.10.60.1110.712.67.42.90.90.227.38.75.12.00.60.133.44.02.30.90.30.141.21.40.80.30.10.050.30.40.20.10.00.0

Next matches of Monza

23/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayTorino

28/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeNapoli

31/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayBologna

Next matches of Cagliari

24/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeBologna

27/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayAS Roma

1/11/2026 · ITA.1AwayLazio

Our model gives Monza win 41%, draw 27%, Cagliari win 32%. over 2.5 goals 47%. both teams to score 52%. expected goals 1.37 - 1.18. largest gap to the market: draw (3 points). Estimates, not guarantees.