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Braga vs Gil Vicente prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Braga vs Gil Vicente, 2026-10-19, Portuguese Primeira Liga, kickoff 22:15 Athens time

MATCH ANALYSIS/PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA/2026-10-19
stadiumPORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA•19:15 GMT
scheduleKICKOFF IN:
--:--:--
BragaHOME
VS19:15 GMT
monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.54

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MODEL OVER 2.5

47%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

45%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

5

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

10%24%38%51%65%05:0009:0011:3014:0016:30
1 BragaX2 Gil Vicente
SELECTIONFIRSTLATESTFAIR ODDS NOWDRIFT
Braga (1)59.6%58.2%1.72trending_down-1.4 pp
Draw (X)24%24.6%4.07trending_up+0.6 pp
Gil Vicente (2)16.5%17.2%5.81trending_up+0.7 pp
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Algorithmic Value

FREE
NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Braga 1 - 0 Gil Vicente

PROBABILITY

13.8%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.8Exp. cards 4.5
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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Braga
60%1.671.59
Draw
24%4.203.95
Gil Vicente
16%6.175.75
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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Braga or draw
84%1.19—
Gil Vicente or draw
40%2.50—
Either team wins (no draw)
76%1.31—
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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
72%1.381.30
Under 1.5 goals
28%3.633.30
Over 2.5 goals
47%2.142.00
Under 2.5 goals
53%1.881.77
Over 3.5 goals
25%3.973.25
Under 3.5 goals
75%1.341.30
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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
45%2.20—
Not both score (NG)
55%1.83—
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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 7.5 corners
61%1.631.30
Under 7.5 corners
39%2.583.05
Over 8.5 corners
50%2.011.63
Under 8.5 corners
50%1.992.15
Over 9.5 corners
39%2.572.07
Under 9.5 corners
61%1.641.67
Over 10.5 corners
29%3.422.70
Under 10.5 corners
71%1.411.38
Over 11.5 corners
21%4.73—
Under 11.5 corners
79%1.27—
Over 12.5 corners
15%6.76—
Under 12.5 corners
85%1.17—
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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 cards
93%1.08—
Under 1.5 cards
7%13.41—
Over 2.5 cards
82%1.23—
Under 2.5 cards
18%5.43—
Over 3.5 cards
65%1.53—
Under 3.5 cards
35%2.87—
Over 4.5 cards
47%2.14—
Under 4.5 cards
53%1.88—
Over 5.5 cards
30%3.31—
Under 5.5 cards
70%1.43—
Over 6.5 cards
18%5.62—
Under 6.5 cards
82%1.22—
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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER47%
add_circleBraga
add_circleOver 1.5 goals
Indicative odds: 1.93
BUILDER42%
add_circleBraga
add_circleUnder 3.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.06
history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Braga

Braga

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 3-8

LWDLL
LAF.C. København0-3
LHSporting CP1-3
DASanta Clara0-0
WHEstoril1-0
LAEstrela1-2
Gil Vicente

Gil Vicente

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 6-7

LLDWW
WAUnião Santarém3-2
WAMoreirense1-0
DHMaritimo1-1
LABenfica1-3
LHAcadémico de Viseu0-1

Head-to-head

2026-02-14
Gil Vicente2 - 1Braga
2025-09-14
Braga0 - 1Gil Vicente
2025-02-09
Braga2 - 0Gil Vicente
2024-09-01
Gil Vicente0 - 0Braga
2024-03-16
Braga2 - 1Gil Vicente
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Team comparison

#51 ▼3Power Index 62.7
Power Ranking
#120 ▲5Power Index 49.4
€159m4th in the league
Squad value
€27m14th in the league
Carlos Vicenssince 1 Jul 2025 · 75 games · 1.89 pts/game
Head coach
Luís Pintosince 1 Jul 2026 · 8 games · 1.75 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)
60%Market 61%
Draw (X)
24%Market 23%
Away win (2)
16%Market 16%
Over 2.5 goals
47%Market 47%
Both teams to score
45%Market: —
Expected goals
1.8 - 0.8

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Braga 1 - 0 Gil Vicente (13.8%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

  1. 1 - 013.8%
  2. 2 - 012.1%
  3. 1 - 110.9%
  4. 2 - 19.5%
  5. 0 - 07.9%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Gil Vicente
Goals scored by Braga
01234507.96.22.50.60.10.0113.810.94.31.10.20.0212.19.53.81.00.20.037.15.62.20.60.10.043.12.41.00.30.10.051.10.90.30.10.00.0

Next matches of Braga

25/10/2026 · POR.1AwayC.D. Nacional
1/11/2026 · POR.1HomeFC Famalicao
8/11/2026 · POR.1AwayRio Ave

Next matches of Gil Vicente

24/10/2026 · POR.1HomeFC Porto
2/11/2026 · POR.1HomeVitória de Guimaraes
8/11/2026 · POR.1AwaySanta Clara

More matches on this day

Our model gives Braga win 60%, draw 24%, Gil Vicente win 16%. over 2.5 goals 47%. both teams to score 45%. expected goals 1.75 - 0.79. largest gap to the market: Braga win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.

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