Ukraine vs Hungary prediction and analysis

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE/2026-10-05

stadiumUEFA NATIONS LEAGUE•18:45 GMT

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HOME

Ukraine

VS18:45 GMT

Hungary

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

1.98

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

32%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

40%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Over 1.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

67%

ODDS

1.50

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 UkraineX2 Hungary

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Ukraine (1)	36.9%	35%	2.86	trending_down-1.9 pp
Draw (X)	30.7%	32.5%	3.08	trending_up+1.8 pp
Hungary (2)	32.4%	32.5%	3.08	trending_flat+0.2 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK67%

Over 1.5 goals

Αναμενόμενα γκολ: Ukraine 1.20, Hungary 1.08 (σύνολο 2.28).

Η αγορά (DraftKings (ESPN), χωρίς margin) δίνει 1 37%, X 31%, 2 32%.

Odds: 1.50

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Ukraine 1 - 0 Hungary

PROBABILITY

14.2%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 7.6Exp. cards 4.6Elo 1747 vs 1702

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Ukraine

36%2.792.65

Draw

32%3.142.85

Hungary

32%3.102.85

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Ukraine or draw

68%1.48—

Hungary or draw

64%1.56—

Either team wins (no draw)

68%1.47—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

59%1.691.55

Under 1.5 goals

41%2.452.45

Over 2.5 goals

32%3.162.45

Under 2.5 goals

68%1.461.50

Over 3.5 goals

14%7.224.70

Under 3.5 goals

86%1.161.14

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

40%2.52—

Not both score (NG)

60%1.66—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

48%2.091.53

Under 7.5 corners

52%1.912.33

Over 8.5 corners

37%2.672.03

Under 8.5 corners

63%1.601.70

Over 9.5 corners

29%3.502.77

Under 9.5 corners

71%1.401.39

Over 10.5 corners

21%4.65—

Under 10.5 corners

79%1.27—

Over 11.5 corners

16%6.21—

Under 11.5 corners

84%1.19—

Over 12.5 corners

12%8.19—

Under 12.5 corners

88%1.14—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

90%1.11—

Under 1.5 cards

10%9.95—

Over 2.5 cards

80%1.24—

Under 2.5 cards

20%5.10—

Over 3.5 cards

66%1.521.34

Under 3.5 cards

34%2.923.00

Over 4.5 cards

49%2.051.80

Under 4.5 cards

51%1.961.90

Over 5.5 cards

33%3.00—

Under 5.5 cards

67%1.50—

Over 6.5 cards

21%4.67—

Under 6.5 cards

79%1.27—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Ukraine

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 4-5

WLWDL

Northern Ireland0-3

Georgia0-0

Hungary1-0

Denmark1-2

Poland2-0

Hungary

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 6-3

WWLDW

Georgia1-0

Northern Ireland0-0

Ukraine0-1

Kazakhstan3-1

Finland2-1

Head-to-head

2026-09-25

Hungary0 - 1Ukraine

analytics

Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market

Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.

MODEL MARKET

36%Home win (1)35%

32%Draw (X)32%

32%Away win (2)32%

32%Over 2.5 goals—

40%Both teams to score—

1.02Expected goals (model)0.95

52%Elo rating probabilities (1 / X / 2)23%

Draw: 25%

SCORE PROBABILITY GRID

Poisson from expected goals. Rows: Ukraine. Columns: Hungary. %

012345013.913.26.32.00.50.1114.213.56.42.00.50.127.26.93.31.00.20.032.52.41.10.40.10.040.60.60.30.10.00.050.10.10.10.00.00.0

Ukraine