France vs Belgium prediction and analysis

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE/2026-10-05

stadiumUEFA NATIONS LEAGUE•18:45 GMT

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France

VS18:45 GMT

Belgium

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.10

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

60%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

55%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

1 (France)

MODEL PROBABILITY

65%

ODDS

1.44

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 FranceX2 Belgium

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
France (1)	63.7%	64%	1.56	trending_flat+0.3 pp
Draw (X)	20.2%	20.5%	4.87	trending_flat+0.4 pp
Belgium (2)	16.1%	15.4%	6.49	trending_down-0.7 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK65%

1 (France)

Odds: 1.44

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

France 2 - 0 Belgium

PROBABILITY

10.4%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.4Exp. cards 3.3Elo 2088 vs 1972

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

France

65%1.551.44

Draw

20%4.964.50

Belgium

15%6.536.00

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

France or draw

85%1.18—

Belgium or draw

36%2.82—

Either team wins (no draw)

80%1.25—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

82%1.221.17

Under 1.5 goals

18%5.505.10

Over 2.5 goals

60%1.671.55

Under 2.5 goals

40%2.492.50

Over 3.5 goals

38%2.662.40

Under 3.5 goals

62%1.601.58

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

55%1.83—

Not both score (NG)

45%2.20—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

66%1.51—

Under 7.5 corners

34%2.95—

Over 8.5 corners

56%1.781.53

Under 8.5 corners

44%2.282.33

Over 9.5 corners

46%2.161.96

Under 9.5 corners

54%1.861.75

Over 10.5 corners

37%2.692.55

Under 10.5 corners

63%1.591.45

Over 11.5 corners

29%3.44—

Under 11.5 corners

71%1.41—

Over 12.5 corners

22%4.45—

Under 12.5 corners

78%1.29—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

81%1.23—

Under 1.5 cards

19%5.29—

Over 2.5 cards

63%1.581.34

Under 2.5 cards

37%2.723.00

Over 3.5 cards

43%2.301.80

Under 3.5 cards

57%1.771.90

Over 4.5 cards

27%3.71—

Under 4.5 cards

73%1.37—

Over 5.5 cards

16%6.29—

Under 5.5 cards

84%1.19—

Over 6.5 cards

10%10.22—

Under 6.5 cards

90%1.11—

layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability comes from the model score grid. Odds are indicative (product of leg prices adjusted for correlation), not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER45%

add_circleFrance

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.93

BUILDER37%

add_circleFrance

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.28

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

France

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 7-9

LLWWD

Italy1-1

Belgium1-0

Türkiye1-0

England4-6

Spain0-2

Belgium

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · goals 10-4

WLWLW

Türkiye3-0

France0-1

Italy2-0

Spain1-2

United States4-1

Head-to-head

2026-09-28

Belgium0 - 1France

2024-10-14

Belgium1 - 2France

2024-09-09

France2 - 0Belgium

2024-07-01

France1 - 0Belgium

2021-10-07

Belgium2 - 3France

analytics

Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market

Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.

MODEL MARKET

64%Home win (1)67%

20%Draw (X)19%

15%Away win (2)14%

60%Over 2.5 goals—

55%Both teams to score—

2.15Expected goals (model)0.95

61%Elo rating probabilities (1 / X / 2)18%

Draw: 22%

SCORE PROBABILITY GRID

Poisson from expected goals. Rows: France. Columns: Belgium. %

01234504.54.32.00.60.20.019.79.24.41.40.30.1210.49.94.71.50.40.137.47.13.41.10.30.044.03.81.80.60.10.051.71.60.80.20.10.0

France