Cyprus vs Latvia prediction and analysis

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE/2026-10-05

stadiumUEFA NATIONS LEAGUE•16:00 GMT

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Cyprus

VS16:00 GMT

Latvia

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.49

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

45%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

44%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 CyprusX2 Latvia

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Cyprus (1)	57.5%	61.1%	1.64	trending_up+3.6 pp
Draw (X)	25%	24.7%	4.06	trending_flat-0.3 pp
Latvia (2)	17.6%	14.2%	7.03	trending_down-3.4 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Cyprus 1 - 0 Latvia

PROBABILITY

14.4%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.0Exp. cards 3.4Elo 1336 vs 1256

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Cyprus

61%1.641.53

Draw

24%4.223.80

Latvia

15%6.596.00

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Cyprus or draw

85%1.18—

Latvia or draw

39%2.57—

Either team wins (no draw)

76%1.31—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

71%1.401.30

Under 1.5 goals

29%3.513.15

Over 2.5 goals

45%2.202.08

Under 2.5 goals

55%1.831.75

Over 3.5 goals

24%4.143.35

Under 3.5 goals

76%1.321.27

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

44%2.29—

Not both score (NG)

56%1.78—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

62%1.601.31

Under 7.5 corners

38%2.663.15

Over 8.5 corners

52%1.911.59

Under 8.5 corners

48%2.102.22

Over 9.5 corners

42%2.362.03

Under 9.5 corners

58%1.741.70

Over 10.5 corners

33%2.992.70

Under 10.5 corners

67%1.501.41

Over 11.5 corners

26%3.86—

Under 11.5 corners

74%1.35—

Over 12.5 corners

20%5.04—

Under 12.5 corners

80%1.25—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

82%1.22—

Under 1.5 cards

18%5.54—

Over 2.5 cards

65%1.551.36

Under 2.5 cards

35%2.832.90

Over 3.5 cards

45%2.221.85

Under 3.5 cards

55%1.821.85

Over 4.5 cards

28%3.54—

Under 4.5 cards

72%1.39—

Over 5.5 cards

17%5.94—

Under 5.5 cards

83%1.20—

Over 6.5 cards

10%9.70—

Under 6.5 cards

90%1.11—

layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability comes from the model score grid. Odds are indicative (product of leg prices adjusted for correlation), not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER47%

add_circleCyprus

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.84

BUILDER44%

add_circleCyprus

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.94

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Cyprus

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 6-3

DWLDW

Armenia2-0

Latvia0-0

Montenegro1-2

Liechtenstein2-0

Slovenia1-1

Latvia

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 3-4

WWLDL

Montenegro1-2

Cyprus0-0

Armenia0-2

Gibraltar1-0

Head-to-head

2026-09-28

Latvia0 - 0Cyprus

2024-03-21

Cyprus1 - 1Latvia

analytics

Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market

Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.

MODEL MARKET

61%Home win (1)63%

24%Draw (X)23%

15%Away win (2)14%

45%Over 2.5 goals46%

44%Both teams to score—

1.75Expected goals (model)0.74

56%Elo rating probabilities (1 / X / 2)20%

Draw: 24%

SCORE PROBABILITY GRID

Poisson from expected goals. Rows: Cyprus. Columns: Latvia. %

01234508.26.12.30.60.10.0114.410.84.01.00.20.0212.69.43.50.90.20.037.45.52.00.50.10.043.22.40.90.20.00.051.10.80.30.10.00.0

Cyprus