Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Poland prediction and analysis

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE/2026-10-05

stadiumUEFA NATIONS LEAGUE•18:45 GMT

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Bosnia-Herzegovina

VS18:45 GMT

Poland

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.54

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

47%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

52%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Bosnia-HerzegovinaX2 Poland

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Bosnia-Herzegovina (1)	31.9%	33.8%	2.96	trending_up+1.9 pp
Draw (X)	28%	29%	3.44	trending_up+1.1 pp
Poland (2)	40.2%	37.2%	2.69	trending_down-3.0 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Poland

PROBABILITY

12.7%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 7.4Exp. cards 4.1Elo 1655 vs 1702

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Bosnia-Herzegovina

35%2.832.75

Draw

27%3.643.20

Poland

37%2.692.50

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Bosnia-Herzegovina or draw

63%1.59—

Poland or draw

65%1.55—

Either team wins (no draw)

73%1.38—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

73%1.381.32

Under 1.5 goals

27%3.643.10

Over 2.5 goals

47%2.142.03

Under 2.5 goals

53%1.881.80

Over 3.5 goals

25%3.973.20

Under 3.5 goals

75%1.341.30

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

52%1.92—

Not both score (NG)

48%2.09—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

45%2.211.54

Under 7.5 corners

55%1.822.32

Over 8.5 corners

35%2.852.00

Under 8.5 corners

65%1.541.72

Over 9.5 corners

27%3.772.70

Under 9.5 corners

73%1.361.41

Over 10.5 corners

20%5.05—

Under 10.5 corners

80%1.25—

Over 11.5 corners

15%6.75—

Under 11.5 corners

85%1.17—

Over 12.5 corners

11%8.86—

Under 12.5 corners

89%1.13—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

87%1.15—

Under 1.5 cards

13%7.83—

Over 2.5 cards

75%1.34—

Under 2.5 cards

25%3.92—

Over 3.5 cards

57%1.751.42

Under 3.5 cards

43%2.342.65

Over 4.5 cards

40%2.521.99

Under 4.5 cards

60%1.661.73

Over 5.5 cards

25%3.94—

Under 5.5 cards

75%1.34—

Over 6.5 cards

16%6.39—

Under 6.5 cards

84%1.19—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 8-6

WLDWD

Sweden1-1

Romania4-2

Poland0-0

United States0-2

Qatar3-1

Poland

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 9-7

LDDLW

Romania6-0

Sweden1-3

Bosnia-Herzegovina0-0

Nigeria2-2

Ukraine0-2

Head-to-head

2026-09-25

Poland0 - 0Bosnia-Herzegovina

2020-10-14

Poland3 - 0Bosnia-Herzegovina

2020-09-07

Bosnia-Herzegovina1 - 2Poland

2010-12-10

Bosnia-Herzegovina2 - 2Poland

analytics

Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market

Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.

MODEL MARKET

35%Home win (1)34%

27%Draw (X)29%

37%Away win (2)37%

47%Over 2.5 goals47%

52%Both teams to score—

1.25Expected goals (model)1.29

41%Elo rating probabilities (1 / X / 2)31%

Draw: 28%

SCORE PROBABILITY GRID

Poisson from expected goals. Rows: Bosnia-Herzegovina. Columns: Poland. %

01234507.810.16.52.80.90.219.812.78.23.51.10.326.28.05.12.20.70.232.63.32.10.90.30.140.81.00.70.30.10.050.20.30.20.10.00.0

Bosnia-Herzegovina