Northern Ireland vs Georgia prediction and analysis

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE/2026-10-05

stadiumUEFA NATIONS LEAGUE•18:45 GMT

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Northern Ireland

VS18:45 GMT

Georgia

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.02

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

33%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

40%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 9.5 corners

MODEL PROBABILITY

72%

ODDS

1.53

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Northern IrelandX2 Georgia

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Northern Ireland (1)	38.4%	39.3%	2.54	trending_up+0.9 pp
Draw (X)	32.3%	31.8%	3.14	trending_down-0.5 pp
Georgia (2)	29.3%	28.9%	3.47	trending_down-0.4 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK72%

Under 9.5 corners

Αναμενόμενα κόρνερ: Northern Ireland 3.7, Georgia 3.8, σύνολο 7.5 (γραμμή 9.5).

Ρυθμός κόρνερ υπέρ σε σχέση με τον μέσο όρο: Northern Ireland x0.88, Georgia x0.99 (δείγμα 24 και 25 ισοδύναμοι αγώνες).

Odds: 1.53

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Northern Ireland 1 - 0 Georgia

PROBABILITY

14.8%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 7.5Exp. cards 4.1Elo 1681 vs 1619

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Northern Ireland

40%2.492.35

Draw

31%3.212.90

Georgia

29%3.493.20

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Northern Ireland or draw

71%1.40—

Georgia or draw

60%1.67—

Either team wins (no draw)

69%1.45—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

60%1.651.58

Under 1.5 goals

40%2.532.40

Over 2.5 goals

33%3.032.60

Under 2.5 goals

67%1.491.45

Over 3.5 goals

15%6.804.80

Under 3.5 goals

85%1.171.13

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

40%2.47—

Not both score (NG)

60%1.68—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

47%2.151.50

Under 7.5 corners

53%1.872.40

Over 8.5 corners

36%2.751.99

Under 8.5 corners

64%1.571.73

Over 9.5 corners

28%3.622.65

Under 9.5 corners

72%1.381.42

Over 10.5 corners

21%4.84—

Under 10.5 corners

79%1.26—

Over 11.5 corners

15%6.46—

Under 11.5 corners

85%1.18—

Over 12.5 corners

12%8.50—

Under 12.5 corners

88%1.13—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

87%1.15—

Under 1.5 cards

13%7.80—

Over 2.5 cards

74%1.34—

Under 2.5 cards

26%3.91—

Over 3.5 cards

57%1.751.38

Under 3.5 cards

43%2.332.80

Over 4.5 cards

40%2.531.90

Under 4.5 cards

60%1.651.80

Over 5.5 cards

25%3.96—

Under 5.5 cards

75%1.34—

Over 6.5 cards

16%6.41—

Under 6.5 cards

84%1.18—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Northern Ireland

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 6-3

WLWDW

Ukraine3-0

Hungary0-0

Georgia1-0

France1-3

Guinea1-0

Georgia

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 3-3

DWLDL

Hungary0-1

Ukraine0-0

Northern Ireland0-1

Bahrain2-0

Romania1-1

Head-to-head

2026-09-25

Georgia0 - 1Northern Ireland

2008-03-26

Northern Ireland4 - 1Georgia

analytics

Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market

Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.

MODEL MARKET

40%Home win (1)40%

31%Draw (X)32%

29%Away win (2)29%

33%Over 2.5 goals—

40%Both teams to score—

1.12Expected goals (model)0.90

54%Elo rating probabilities (1 / X / 2)21%

Draw: 24%

SCORE PROBABILITY GRID

Poisson from expected goals. Rows: Northern Ireland. Columns: Georgia. %

012345013.211.95.41.60.40.1114.813.46.01.80.40.128.37.53.41.00.20.033.12.81.30.40.10.040.90.80.40.10.00.050.20.20.10.00.00.0

Northern Ireland