Italy vs Türkiye prediction and analysis

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE/2026-10-05

stadiumUEFA NATIONS LEAGUE•18:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

--:--:--

HOME

Italy

VS18:45 GMT

Türkiye

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.11

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

60%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

51%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

1 (Italy)

MODEL PROBABILITY

69%

ODDS

1.35

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 ItalyX2 Türkiye

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Italy (1)	67.5%	68.7%	1.46	trending_up+1.2 pp
Draw (X)	19.3%	18.9%	5.28	trending_flat-0.3 pp
Türkiye (2)	13.2%	12.4%	8.08	trending_down-0.8 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK69%

1 (Italy)

Odds: 1.35

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Italy 2 - 0 Türkiye

PROBABILITY

11.4%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.0Exp. cards 4.4

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Italy

69%1.451.35

Draw

19%5.384.90

Türkiye

12%8.147.50

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Italy or draw

88%1.14—

Türkiye or draw

31%3.24—

Either team wins (no draw)

81%1.23—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

82%1.22—

Under 1.5 goals

18%5.54—

Over 2.5 goals

60%1.66—

Under 2.5 goals

40%2.51—

Over 3.5 goals

38%2.65—

Under 3.5 goals

62%1.61—

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

51%1.94—

Not both score (NG)

49%2.06—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

70%1.421.25

Under 7.5 corners

30%3.383.75

Over 8.5 corners

61%1.641.44

Under 8.5 corners

39%2.572.62

Over 9.5 corners

51%1.951.80

Under 9.5 corners

49%2.061.90

Over 10.5 corners

42%2.382.25

Under 10.5 corners

58%1.731.57

Over 11.5 corners

34%2.983.00

Under 11.5 corners

66%1.501.36

Over 12.5 corners

26%3.814.00

Under 12.5 corners

74%1.361.22

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

89%1.12—

Under 1.5 cards

11%9.02—

Over 2.5 cards

78%1.28—

Under 2.5 cards

22%4.56—

Over 3.5 cards

62%1.61—

Under 3.5 cards

38%2.65—

Over 4.5 cards

45%2.22—

Under 4.5 cards

55%1.82—

Over 5.5 cards

30%3.35—

Under 5.5 cards

70%1.43—

Over 6.5 cards

19%5.32—

Under 6.5 cards

81%1.23—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Italy

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 7-4

WWLWD

France1-1

Türkiye4-1

Belgium0-2

Greece1-0

Luxembourg1-0

Türkiye

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · goals 4-11

LWLLL

Belgium0-3

Italy1-4

France0-1

United States3-2

Paraguay0-1

Head-to-head

2026-09-28

Türkiye1 - 4Italy

2024-06-04

Italy0 - 0Türkiye

2022-03-29

Türkiye2 - 3Italy

2021-06-11

Türkiye0 - 3Italy

2006-11-15

Italy1 - 1Türkiye

analytics

Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market

Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.

MODEL MARKET

69%Home win (1)72%

19%Draw (X)17%

12%Away win (2)11%

60%Over 2.5 goals—

51%Both teams to score—

2.26Expected goals (model)0.85

SCORE PROBABILITY GRID

Poisson from expected goals. Rows: Italy. Columns: Türkiye. %

01234504.53.81.60.50.10.0110.18.53.61.00.20.0211.49.74.11.20.20.038.67.33.10.90.20.044.94.11.70.50.10.052.21.90.80.20.00.0

Italy