Romania vs Sweden: prediction and analysis
HOMERomania
Sweden
AWAYPROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
3.00
MODEL OVER 2.5
58%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
57%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
6
No pick passes our filters for this match.
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
| SELECTION | FIRST | LATEST | FAIR ODDS NOW | DRIFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania (1) | 23.5% | 19.7% | 5.07 | trending_down-3.8 pp |
| Draw (X) | 24.1% | 22.6% | 4.42 | trending_down-1.5 pp |
| Sweden (2) | 52.4% | 57.7% | 1.73 | trending_up+5.3 pp |
Algorithmic Value
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Romania 1 - 1 Sweden
10.3%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Corners
Cards (yellow + red)
Bet builder ideas
Two legs of the same match. Joint probability comes from the model score grid. Odds are indicative (product of leg prices adjusted for correlation), not a bookmaker quote.
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Romania
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 6-14
Poland0-6
Bosnia-Herzegovina2-4Sweden1-2
Wales2-1
Georgia1-1Sweden
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 7-7
Bosnia-Herzegovina1-1Poland3-1Romania2-1
France0-3
Japan1-1Head-to-head
Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market
Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.
Draw: 27%
Poisson from expected goals. Rows: Romania. Columns: Sweden. %