Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce, 2026-10-14, UEFA Champions League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

stadiumUEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE•19:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

--:--:--

HOME

Aston Villa

VS19:00 GMT

Fenerbahce

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.04

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

59%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

58%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

5

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Aston VillaX2 Fenerbahce

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Aston Villa (1)	58.1%	57.3%	1.75	trending_down-0.9 pp
Draw (X)	22.8%	23.3%	4.30	trending_up+0.5 pp
Fenerbahce (2)	19.1%	19.5%	5.13	trending_flat+0.4 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Aston Villa 1 - 1 Fenerbahce

PROBABILITY

10.3%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.8Exp. cards 4.6

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Aston Villa

56%1.791.71

Draw

23%4.404.00

Fenerbahce

21%4.654.70

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Aston Villa or draw

79%1.27—

Fenerbahce or draw

44%2.26—

Either team wins (no draw)

77%1.29—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

81%1.231.17

Under 1.5 goals

19%5.264.15

Over 2.5 goals

59%1.711.60

Under 2.5 goals

41%2.422.35

Over 3.5 goals

36%2.762.35

Under 3.5 goals

64%1.571.55

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

58%1.73—

Not both score (NG)

42%2.37—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

71%1.40—

Under 7.5 corners

29%3.51—

Over 8.5 corners

61%1.641.40

Under 8.5 corners

39%2.562.70

Over 9.5 corners

50%2.001.73

Under 9.5 corners

50%2.002.00

Over 10.5 corners

40%2.522.20

Under 10.5 corners

60%1.661.60

Over 11.5 corners

30%3.292.85

Under 11.5 corners

70%1.441.35

Over 12.5 corners

23%4.44—

Under 12.5 corners

78%1.29—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

93%1.08—

Under 1.5 cards

7%14.08—

Over 2.5 cards

82%1.211.33

Under 2.5 cards

18%5.682.95

Over 3.5 cards

66%1.511.80

Under 3.5 cards

34%2.981.90

Over 4.5 cards

48%2.08—

Under 4.5 cards

52%1.93—

Over 5.5 cards

31%3.18—

Under 5.5 cards

69%1.46—

Over 6.5 cards

19%5.33—

Under 6.5 cards

81%1.23—

layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER47%

add_circleAston Villa

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.93

BUILDER38%

add_circleAston Villa

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.35

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Aston Villa

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 12-8

LWWWD

DHBrentford2-2

WASevilla3-1

WATottenham Hotspur3-2

WACoventry City3-1

LHNottingham Forest1-2

Fenerbahce

Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · goals 14-1

DDWWW

WACaykur Rizespor3-0

WAPFC Turan Tovuz2-0

WHEyupspor8-0

DAGaziantep FK0-0

DHAS Roma1-1

Head-to-head

2026-01-22

Fenerbahce0 - 1Aston Villa

compare_arrows

Team comparison

Aston Villa

VS

Fenerbahce

#14 ▲2Power Index 77.4

Power Ranking

#58 ▼6Power Index 60.8

€573m12th in the league

Squad value

€261m3rd in the league

Unai Emerysince 1 Nov 2022 · 207 games · 1.83 pts/game

Head coach

İsmail Kartalsince 26 Jun 2026 · 16 games · 1.94 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

56%Market 57%

Draw (X)

23%Market 23%

Away win (2)

21%Market 20%

Over 2.5 goals

59%Market 60%

Both teams to score

58%Market: —

Expected goals

1.9 - 1.1

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Aston Villa 1 - 1 Fenerbahce (10.3%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 110.3%
2. 2 - 19.9%
3. 1 - 09.2%
4. 2 - 08.8%
5. 3 - 16.3%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Fenerbahce

Goals scored by Aston Villa

01234504.85.33.01.10.30.119.210.35.72.10.60.128.89.95.52.10.60.135.76.33.51.30.40.142.73.01.70.60.20.051.01.20.70.20.10.0

Next matches of Aston Villa

24/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeManchester City

31/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeFulham

8/11/2026 · ENG.1AwayManchester United

Next matches of Fenerbahce

26/10/2026 · TUR.1AwayGalatasaray

31/10/2026 · TUR.1HomeGoztepe

8/11/2026 · TUR.1AwayÇorum FK

Our model gives Aston Villa win 56%, draw 23%, Fenerbahce win 21%. over 2.5 goals 59%. both teams to score 58%. expected goals 1.92 - 1.12. largest gap to the market: Fenerbahce win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.