AS Roma vs Real Madrid prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: AS Roma vs Real Madrid, 2026-10-14, UEFA Champions League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

stadiumUEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE•19:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

AS Roma

VS19:00 GMT

Real Madrid

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.42

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

66%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

66%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

Both teams to score (GG)

MODEL PROBABILITY

65%

ODDS

1.45

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 AS RomaX2 Real Madrid

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
AS Roma (1)	26.9%	26.2%	3.82	trending_down-0.8 pp
Draw (X)	24.2%	23.9%	4.19	trending_flat-0.3 pp
Real Madrid (2)	48.9%	50%	2.00	trending_up+1.1 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK65%

Both teams to score (GG)

Our probability: 65%.

Indicative odds: 1.45

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

AS Roma 1 - 1 Real Madrid

PROBABILITY

9.4%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.1Exp. cards 4.0

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

AS Roma

29%3.403.55

Draw

23%4.433.95

Real Madrid

48%2.081.95

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

AS Roma or draw

52%1.92—

Real Madrid or draw

71%1.42—

Either team wins (no draw)

77%1.29—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

86%1.171.11

Under 1.5 goals

14%7.055.30

Over 2.5 goals

66%1.511.38

Under 2.5 goals

34%2.982.80

Over 3.5 goals

45%2.242.05

Under 3.5 goals

55%1.801.78

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

66%1.50—

Not both score (NG)

34%2.98—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

65%1.55—

Under 7.5 corners

35%2.82—

Over 8.5 corners

53%1.881.42

Under 8.5 corners

47%2.142.60

Over 9.5 corners

42%2.371.80

Under 9.5 corners

58%1.731.90

Over 10.5 corners

32%3.102.30

Under 10.5 corners

68%1.481.53

Over 11.5 corners

24%4.203.05

Under 11.5 corners

76%1.311.30

Over 12.5 corners

17%5.90—

Under 12.5 corners

83%1.20—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

89%1.12—

Under 1.5 cards

11%9.34—

Over 2.5 cards

75%1.34—

Under 2.5 cards

25%3.96—

Over 3.5 cards

56%1.801.65

Under 3.5 cards

44%2.252.10

Over 4.5 cards

37%2.732.45

Under 4.5 cards

63%1.581.45

Over 5.5 cards

22%4.61—

Under 5.5 cards

78%1.28—

Over 6.5 cards

12%8.48—

Under 6.5 cards

88%1.13—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER42%

add_circleReal Madrid

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.13

BUILDER36%

add_circleReal Madrid

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.40

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

AS Roma

Last 5: 2W 3D 0L · goals 7-4

WDWDD

DAComo0-0

DHInternazionale2-2

WATorino2-0

DAFenerbahce1-1

WHAtalanta2-1

Real Madrid

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · goals 11-6

WWWLW

WHVillarreal1-0

LAAtlético Madrid1-2

WAElche3-2

WHRayo Vallecano4-1

WHInternazionale2-1

Head-to-head

2019-08-11

AS Roma2 - 2Real Madrid

2018-11-27

AS Roma0 - 2Real Madrid

2018-09-19

Real Madrid3 - 0AS Roma

2018-08-08

Real Madrid2 - 1AS Roma

2016-03-08

Real Madrid2 - 0AS Roma

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Team comparison

AS Roma

VS

Real Madrid

#24 ▲2Power Index 70.0

Power Ranking

#6Power Index 83.0

€498m5th in the league

Squad value

€1.50bn1st in the league

Gian Piero Gasperinisince 6 Jun 2025 · 58 games · 1.86 pts/game

Head coach

José Mourinhosince 1 Jul 2026 · 11 games · 2.45 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

29%Market 27%

Draw (X)

23%Market 24%

Away win (2)

48%Market 50%

Over 2.5 goals

66%Market 69% -3

Both teams to score

66%Market: —

Expected goals

1.5 - 1.9

Most likely final scores

Most likely: AS Roma 1 - 1 Real Madrid (9.4%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 19.4%
2. 1 - 29.1%
3. 2 - 17.0%
4. 2 - 26.8%
5. 0 - 16.3%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Real Madrid

Goals scored by AS Roma

01234503.36.36.14.01.90.714.99.49.15.92.81.123.67.06.84.42.10.831.83.53.32.21.00.440.71.31.20.80.40.150.20.40.40.20.10.0

Next matches of AS Roma

24/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayNapoli

27/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeCagliari

31/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayUdinese

Next matches of Real Madrid

25/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayBarcelona

1/11/2026 · ESP.1AwayRacing Santander

7/11/2026 · ESP.1AwayValencia

Our model gives AS Roma win 29%, draw 23%, Real Madrid win 48%. over 2.5 goals 66%. both teams to score 66%. expected goals 1.48 - 1.94. largest gap to the market: AS Roma win (3 points). Estimates, not guarantees.