AEK Athens vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens, 2026-10-14, UEFA Champions League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

stadiumUEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE•19:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

--:--:--

HOME

Shakhtar Donetsk

VS19:00 GMT

AEK Athens

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.66

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

50%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

55%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 3.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

70%

ODDS

1.40

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Shakhtar DonetskX2 AEK Athens

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Shakhtar Donetsk (1)	35.4%	35.9%	2.78	trending_up+0.5 pp
Draw (X)	28.5%	28.8%	3.47	trending_flat+0.3 pp
AEK Athens (2)	36.1%	35.3%	2.84	trending_down-0.8 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK70%

Under 3.5 goals

Our probability: 70%.

Odds: 1.40

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Shakhtar Donetsk 1 - 1 AEK Athens

PROBABILITY

12.4%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Shakhtar Donetsk

37%2.702.70

Draw

27%3.743.35

AEK Athens

36%2.762.65

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Shakhtar Donetsk or draw

64%1.57—

AEK Athens or draw

63%1.59—

Either team wins (no draw)

73%1.37—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

75%1.341.27

Under 1.5 goals

25%3.983.40

Over 2.5 goals

50%2.011.88

Under 2.5 goals

50%1.991.92

Over 3.5 goals

28%3.602.90

Under 3.5 goals

72%1.391.35

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

55%1.83—

Not both score (NG)

45%2.20—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Shakhtar Donetsk

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 8-8

DLLDW

WHKryvbas KR3-0

DAPSV Eindhoven1-1

LACrystal Palace1-2

LHCrystal Palace1-3

DAAZ Alkmaar2-2

AEK Athens

Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · goals 12-2

WWDWW

WHOFI Crete3-0

WAVolos NFC2-1

DAAsteras Tripoli1-1

WHLASK Linz1-0

WHAris5-0

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

compare_arrows

Team comparison

Shakhtar Donetsk

VS

AEK Athens

—

Power Ranking

#62 ▼5Power Index 60.0

—

Squad value

€86m4th in the league

—

Head coach

Marko Nikolicsince 1 Jul 2025 · 64 games · 2.13 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

37%Market 35%

Draw (X)

27%Market 28%

Away win (2)

36%Market 36%

Over 2.5 goals

50%Market 51%

Both teams to score

55%Market: —

Expected goals

1.3 - 1.3

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Shakhtar Donetsk 1 - 1 AEK Athens (12.4%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 112.4%
2. 1 - 09.3%
3. 0 - 19.2%
4. 2 - 18.3%
5. 1 - 28.2%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by AEK Athens

Goals scored by Shakhtar Donetsk

01234507.09.26.12.70.90.219.312.48.23.61.20.326.38.35.52.40.80.232.83.72.51.10.40.140.91.20.80.40.10.050.30.30.20.10.00.0

Next matches of AEK Athens

24/10/2026 · GRE.1HomePanetolikos

28/10/2026 · GRE.CUPAwayPAOK

1/11/2026 · GRE.1AwayPanathinaikos

Our model gives Shakhtar Donetsk win 37%, draw 27%, AEK Athens win 36%. over 2.5 goals 50%. both teams to score 55%. expected goals 1.34 - 1.32. largest gap to the market: draw (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.