Alverca vs FC Famalicao prediction, tips and odds
Latest match: FC Famalicao vs Alverca, 2026-10-12, Portuguese Primeira Liga, kickoff 22:15 Athens time
PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
2.52
MODEL OVER 2.5
46%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
49%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
3
Under 10.5 corners
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
| SELECTION | FIRST | LATEST | FAIR ODDS NOW | DRIFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicao (1) | 50.2% | 49.5% | 2.02 | trending_down-0.8 pp |
| Draw (X) | 28.4% | 28.6% | 3.50 | trending_flat+0.2 pp |
| Alverca (2) | 21.3% | 22% | 4.56 | trending_up+0.6 pp |
Algorithmic Value
Under 10.5 corners
Expected corners: FC Famalicao 5.4, Alverca 4.0, total 9.4 (line 10.5).
Corners-for rate vs average: FC Famalicao x1.08, Alverca x0.98 (sample 25 and 20 equivalent matches).
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
FC Famalicao 1 - 0 Alverca
12.6%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Corners
Cards (yellow + red)
Bet builder ideas
Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
FC Famalicao
Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · goals 7-4
C.D. Nacional4-0
Sporting CP1-1
Estrela2-2
Gil Vicente0-0
Santa Clara0-1
Alverca
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 7-7
Rio Ave1-0C.D. Nacional3-1
Braga1-2Santa Clara1-1Sporting CP1-3Head-to-head
Team comparison
Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking
What our model says vs what the market says
Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.
Most likely final scores
Most likely: FC Famalicao 1 - 0 Alverca (12.6%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.
- 1 - 012.6%
- 1 - 112.0%
- 2 - 09.9%
- 2 - 19.4%
- 0 - 08.0%
Every score
Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.
Goals scored by AlvercaNext matches of FC Famalicao
Rio AveBraga
AroucaNext matches of Alverca
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Our model gives FC Famalicao win 51%, draw 26%, Alverca win 23%. over 2.5 goals 46%. both teams to score 49%. expected goals 1.57 - 0.95. largest gap to the market: Alverca win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.