PSV Eindhoven vs RB Leipzig prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven, 2026-10-13, UEFA Champions League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

stadiumUEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE•19:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

RB Leipzig

VS19:00 GMT

PSV Eindhoven

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.69

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MODEL OVER 2.5

71%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

68%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 4.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

69%

ODDS

1.42

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 RB LeipzigX2 PSV Eindhoven

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
RB Leipzig (1)	57.3%	61.9%	1.62	trending_up+4.5 pp
Draw (X)	19.9%	19.1%	5.24	trending_down-0.8 pp
PSV Eindhoven (2)	22.8%	19.1%	5.24	trending_down-3.7 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK69%

Under 4.5 goals

Our probability: 69%.

Odds: 1.42

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

RB Leipzig 2 - 1 PSV Eindhoven

PROBABILITY

9.1%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.2Exp. cards 3.0

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

RB Leipzig

57%1.761.67

Draw

20%4.934.80

PSV Eindhoven

23%4.374.20

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

RB Leipzig or draw

77%1.30—

PSV Eindhoven or draw

43%2.32—

Either team wins (no draw)

80%1.25—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

89%1.131.08

Under 1.5 goals

11%8.726.00

Over 2.5 goals

71%1.401.30

Under 2.5 goals

29%3.483.15

Over 3.5 goals

50%1.981.78

Under 3.5 goals

50%2.022.03

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

68%1.47—

Not both score (NG)

32%3.14—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

75%1.341.22

Under 7.5 corners

25%3.944.00

Over 8.5 corners

65%1.551.40

Under 8.5 corners

35%2.822.75

Over 9.5 corners

54%1.851.66

Under 9.5 corners

46%2.172.10

Over 10.5 corners

44%2.302.10

Under 10.5 corners

56%1.771.66

Over 11.5 corners

34%2.952.75

Under 11.5 corners

66%1.511.40

Over 12.5 corners

26%3.923.75

Under 12.5 corners

74%1.341.25

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

80%1.25—

Under 1.5 cards

20%4.94—

Over 2.5 cards

58%1.711.30

Under 2.5 cards

42%2.403.15

Over 3.5 cards

37%2.731.73

Under 3.5 cards

63%1.582.00

Over 4.5 cards

20%4.98—

Under 4.5 cards

80%1.25—

Over 5.5 cards

10%9.95—

Under 5.5 cards

90%1.11—

Over 6.5 cards

7%14.29—

Under 6.5 cards

93%1.08—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER45%

add_circleRB Leipzig

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.96

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Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

RB Leipzig

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 13-9

LLWLW

WHEintracht Frankfurt6-0

LABayer Leverkusen0-2

WHHamburg SV5-0

LAComo1-4

LAWerder Bremen1-3

PSV Eindhoven

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 12-6

WDWLW

WHHeerenveen2-0

LAFC Twente2-3

WHSparta Rotterdam4-1

DHShakhtar Donetsk1-1

WAAjax Amsterdam3-1

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

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Team comparison

RB Leipzig

VS

PSV Eindhoven

#27 ▼3Power Index 69.2

Power Ranking

#23 ▼1Power Index 70.0

€515m4th in the league

Squad value

€307m1st in the league

Martín Demichelissince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 1.67 pts/game

Head coach

Peter Boszsince 1 Jul 2023 · 159 games · 2.18 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

57%Market 59%

Draw (X)

20%Market 19%

Away win (2)

23%Market 22%

Over 2.5 goals

71%Market 74% -3

Both teams to score

68%Market: —

Expected goals

2.3 - 1.4

Most likely final scores

Most likely: RB Leipzig 2 - 1 PSV Eindhoven (9.1%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 19.1%
2. 1 - 18.0%
3. 3 - 17.0%
4. 2 - 06.5%
5. 2 - 26.5%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by PSV Eindhoven

Goals scored by RB Leipzig

01234502.53.52.51.20.40.115.78.05.72.70.90.326.59.16.53.01.10.334.97.04.92.30.80.242.84.02.81.30.50.151.31.81.30.60.20.1

Next matches of RB Leipzig

24/10/2026 · GER.1HomeSV Elversberg

31/10/2026 · GER.1AwaySchalke 04

7/11/2026 · GER.1HomeFC Augsburg

Next matches of PSV Eindhoven

25/10/2026 · NED.1HomeFeyenoord Rotterdam

31/10/2026 · NED.1HomeWillem II

8/11/2026 · NED.1AwaySC Cambuur

Our model gives RB Leipzig win 57%, draw 20%, PSV Eindhoven win 23%. over 2.5 goals 71%. both teams to score 68%. expected goals 2.28 - 1.41. largest gap to the market: RB Leipzig win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.