Napoli vs Villarreal prediction, tips and odds
Latest match: Villarreal vs Napoli, 2026-10-13, UEFA Champions League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time
PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
3.01
MODEL OVER 2.5
58%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
60%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
4
Under 4.5 κίτρινες cards
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
| SELECTION | FIRST | LATEST | FAIR ODDS NOW | DRIFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal (1) | 44.4% | 46.4% | 2.16 | trending_up+2.0 pp |
| Draw (X) | 25.8% | 26.1% | 3.84 | trending_flat+0.3 pp |
| Napoli (2) | 29.8% | 27.6% | 3.63 | trending_down-2.3 pp |
Algorithmic Value
Under 4.5 κίτρινες cards
Our probability: 76%.
Under 3.5 goals
Our probability: 65%.
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Villarreal 1 - 1 Napoli
11.0%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Corners
Cards (yellow + red)
Bet builder ideas
Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Villarreal
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 9-8
Real Madrid0-1
Levante3-1
Málaga3-1
Real Betis1-2
Borussia Dortmund2-3
Napoli
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 7-5
Frosinone3-0
Fiorentina1-1
Bologna1-0
Arsenal0-1
Internazionale2-3Head-to-head
Team comparison
Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking
What our model says vs what the market says
Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.
Most likely final scores
Most likely: Villarreal 1 - 1 Napoli (11.0%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.
- 1 - 111.0%
- 2 - 19.2%
- 1 - 08.3%
- 1 - 27.3%
- 2 - 06.9%
Every score
Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.
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Our model gives Villarreal win 45%, draw 25%, Napoli win 30%. over 2.5 goals 58%. both teams to score 60%. expected goals 1.67 - 1.33. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.