Excelsior vs Heerenveen prediction, tips and odds
Latest match: Heerenveen vs Excelsior, 2026-10-16, Dutch Eredivisie, kickoff 21:00 Athens time
PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
3.32
MODEL OVER 2.5
65%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
61%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
3
No pick passes our filters for this match.
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
| SELECTION | FIRST | LATEST | FAIR ODDS NOW | DRIFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen (1) | 59.3% | 61.2% | 1.63 | trending_up+1.9 pp |
| Draw (X) | 21.9% | 20.7% | 4.83 | trending_down-1.2 pp |
| Excelsior (2) | 18.8% | 18.1% | 5.52 | trending_down-0.7 pp |
Algorithmic Value
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Heerenveen 2 - 1 Excelsior
9.8%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Corners
Cards (yellow + red)
Bet builder ideas
Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Heerenveen
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 8-7
PSV Eindhoven0-2
Sparta Rotterdam4-0
Telstar0-0
AZ Alkmaar2-3
Willem II2-2
Excelsior
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 9-11
FC Groningen1-5
Ajax Amsterdam2-2
FC Utrecht1-2
NEC Nijmegen2-2Willem II3-0Head-to-head
Team comparison
Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking
What our model says vs what the market says
Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.
Most likely final scores
Most likely: Heerenveen 2 - 1 Excelsior (9.8%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.
- 2 - 19.8%
- 1 - 19.1%
- 2 - 08.3%
- 1 - 07.7%
- 3 - 17.0%
Every score
Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.
Goals scored by ExcelsiorNext matches of Heerenveen
ADO Den HaagNEC Nijmegen
Feyenoord RotterdamNext matches of Excelsior
Fortuna Sittard
FC Twente
Go Ahead EaglesMore matches on this day
Çorum FK
Eintracht Frankfurt
Frosinone
Le Mans
Deportivo
Our model gives Heerenveen win 59%, draw 21%, Excelsior win 20%. over 2.5 goals 65%. both teams to score 61%. expected goals 2.15 - 1.17. largest gap to the market: Excelsior win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.