Team vs team comparison
Two clubs side by side from our weekly Power Ranking, plus match probabilities computed in your browser from the same fitted parameters.
How it works
The rating row is the Power Ranking itself: Power Index, expected goals for (gf) and against (ga) versus the average ranked team, and net = gf - ga, all per match on neutral ground.
Match probabilities come from the ranking formula: expected goals of team 1 = exp(mu + attack1 + defence2 + home advantage), of team 2 = exp(mu + attack2 + defence1), where attack and defence are the fitted log-scale strengths of each club and mu the baseline. On neutral ground the home advantage term is left out.
With the two expected goal numbers, a Poisson grid up to 10 goals per team gives the win/draw/loss probabilities. It is our model's estimate from past results, not a prediction and not a tip.
Questions
Where do the numbers come from?
From the same weekly Power Ranking published on this site: a Dixon-Coles style fit over league, cup and European results, nothing entered by hand here.
Is there a head-to-head history here?
Not in this tool. The ranking is built from all results, and this page shows only the fitted strengths and the match probabilities they imply.
Does it know about injuries or lineups?
No. The fit sees past results only. Form, absences and motivation are handled in our full match analysis, not in this calculator.
18+ only. Educational tool, not betting or financial advice. All tools