Score predictor from the Power Ranking
A quick score estimate for any pairing in the Power Ranking. The expected goals come from the ranking formula, the scores from plain Poisson on top.
How it works
Expected goals per team come from the fitted ranking parameters: exp(mu + attack + opponent defence + home advantage), the same formula as the team comparison tool.
A plain Poisson grid up to 10 goals per team turns the two expected goal numbers into every score probability. The most likely scores list is the top of that grid.
This is an estimate from past results, not our published tip. Tips go through news checks and a market blend that this tool does not do.
Questions
Is this your official prediction?
No. It is a transparent estimate from the ranking parameters. Our published tips add a market blend and a news check that are not part of this tool.
Why is a 1-0 often more likely than 3-0?
Because Poisson spreads probability over all scores and low scores sit near the expected goals. Even the top score usually stays under about 15%.
Does home advantage matter?
Yes. The venue selector changes the expected goals of the hosting side through the fitted home advantage term, and every number updates.
18+ only. Educational tool, not betting or financial advice. All tools