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Lesson 6 of 7

Are low odds worth it?

3 min read · Intermediate · Updated 2026-10-22

In one sentence
At 1.40 you need above 71.4% success just to break even, so a 70% hit rate loses money.

Low odds (1.30 to 1.60) win often. That creates the impression that they are safe. The question is how often you must win to come out ahead.

The break-even point

At odds of 1.40 you need more than 1 / 1.40 = 71.4% success. At 1.60 you need 62.5%. At 2.00 only 50%.

Example
100 bets of 10 euros at 1.40 with a 70% hit rate. You win 70 × 4 = 280 euros and lose 30 × 10 = 300 euros. The result is −20 euros, even though you win 7 in 10.

What hurts

One loss wipes out 2.5 wins. A run of three losses, which happens often, costs nearly eight wins. That is why the stake must be small and the probability estimate accurate.

When it makes sense

When the real probability is above the break-even point. A high hit rate alone is not enough. It works if you know the market undervalues the team.

A target of 60 to 70% success at odds of 1.40 to 1.60 is marginal. The number that matters is the price relative to the probability, not the win rate.

Check your understanding

1. Odds of 1.40. What is the break-even point?
1 / 1.40 = 71.4%.

18+ only. Educational information, not betting or financial advice.

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