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Intermediate
Course

Staking systems and traps

Why progressive staking systems do not work, how to measure ROI and yield, and the most common mistakes.

What you will learn

  • Explain why Martingale and its cousins do not change the mathematical edge.
  • Compute ROI and yield and know when the sample is large enough.
  • Read odds movement and arbitrage with realistic expectations.
  • Recognise the most common mistakes before you make them.

Lessons

1Martingale, Fibonacci and progression systemsProgression systems only change when you lose, not the expected value: the long losing run is what ruins you.3 min2ROI and yield: how to tell if you are winningYield is profit divided by total staked; you need hundreds of bets before it means anything.3 min3Dropping odds: what it means when a price movesA falling price means the market sees the outcome as likelier; beating the closing price is a sign you play well.3 min4Both teams to score: when both sides find the netBTTS needs both teams to score; the probability is not simply the product, because goals are linked.3 min5Arbitrage: the "sure" bet and what it hidesAn arbitrage exists when the inverse odds across bookmakers add up to less than 1, but it is small and hard to place.3 min6Are low odds worth it?At 1.40 you need above 71.4% success just to break even, so a 70% hit rate loses money.3 min7The most common betting mistakesMost losses come from habits such as chasing losses and not tracking results, not from picking wrong teams.3 min

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