Most bad analyses do not fail for lack of information. They fail because the information goes in at random and with too much weight. A fixed checklist fixes that. Every match goes through the same points and every point has a limit.
The seven points
- Context: competition, what the match is worth, venue.
- Team strength: the long-run picture, not the last two games.
- Form: only as a small correction, weighted to the sample size.
- Absences: who is missing and what share of output goes with them.
- Lineup: confirm shortly before kick-off, goalkeeper above all.
- Schedule: fatigue, travel, rest, or many games in a few days.
- Market: the price bookmakers offer and how far it sits from yours.
How far each check moves the number
You start from a base that comes from team strength. Then you add small corrections in percentage points. If one correction goes beyond 2 or 3 points, ask yourself what you know that the market does not. Usually the answer is nothing.
Why the changes are small and bounded
- Every input is uncertain. Your estimate of how much an absence matters has its own error.
- Inputs overlap. A team with many absences usually has worse form too, so you count the same thing twice.
- The market has already seen most of this. A big gap from its price needs a reason.
- A big correction that comes from one input is usually a story you like, not a measurement.
When you finish, write the number and the reasons in two lines. If you cannot, the analysis was not ready.
Making it a habit
Keep the same template for every match: one line per point, one number per correction and one source. When something is missing, write "I do not know" and leave the correction at zero. An empty line is more honest than a finding that merely looks good. Over time you will see which points change your mind most often and whether the change turned out right. That is what improves the analysis, not the number of points. Also keep the actual and the expected apart: what happened in the last few games is not the same as what should have happened. If after a month you see that your corrections always favour the team you like, you know where the problem is.