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Intermediate

Course

How we analyse a match

The human side of analysis: a checklist, form, absences, tactics and the traps that fool us.

What you will learn

Follow a fixed checklist for every match.
Know how many games it takes for form to say anything.
Turn an absence into a small, measured change in expected goals.
Put referee, weather and tactics in their place: small adjustments.
Spot the myths (head-to-head, new manager) and decide play or pass.

Lessons

1A checklist for one match, step by stepRun every match through the same seven checks and let each one move the probability only a little.3 min 2Form, home advantage and splitsFive games carry a lot of noise, so form gets a small weight and small home or away samples are pulled toward the average.4 min 3Absences and lineups: who is missing and how much it mattersAn absence matters by the share of xG or minutes it removes, and the replacement covers part of it.3 min 4Tactics and matchups: how style changes the numbersStyle changes the pattern of goals, corners and cards, while referee and weather stay small adjustments.3 min 5Motivation, context and traps: a full worked exampleHead-to-head, derbies and new-manager stories rest on small samples, so run a match through the full checklist and be ready to pass.3 min

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