The 2.5 line is the best known. Next to it sit 2.75 and 3. They look like small changes, but they change what you get when exactly 3 goals are scored.
What each line means
- Over 2.5: wins with 3 goals or more. No refund.
- Over 3: wins with 4 or more. With exactly 3 goals the stake is refunded.
- Over 2.75: the stake is split in half, half on 2.5 and half on 3.
Under works the other way round. Under 2.75 is half Under 2.5 and half Under 3.
Exact results with a stake of 10
To compare cleanly, use the same price on every line: Over 1.90 and Under 1.95. In practice each line has its own price, because the probability changes.
| Pick | 2 goals | 3 goals | 4 goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 at 1.90 | −10.00 | +9.00 | +9.00 |
| Over 2.75 at 1.90 | −10.00 | +4.50 | +9.00 |
| Over 3 at 1.90 | −10.00 | 0.00 | +9.00 |
| Under 2.5 at 1.95 | +9.50 | −10.00 | −10.00 |
| Under 2.75 at 1.95 | +9.50 | −5.00 | −10.00 |
| Under 3 at 1.95 | +9.50 | 0.00 | −10.00 |
How to pick a line
The question is how often exactly 3 goals come. If you think it is common, the 2.5 line gives you a full win there. The 3 line protects you, but it also pays less. The market prices that difference, so no line is always better.
How the price of each line comes out
Say, made up, that the probabilities are: 2 goals or fewer 48%, exactly 3 goals 22%, 4 or more 30%. The total is 100%. Then the fair oddsi for the Over are as follows.
- Over 2.5 wins at 52% (22 + 30): 1 / 0.52 = 1.92.
- Over 3 wins at 30%, refunds at 22% and loses at 48%: 1 + 48 / 30 = 2.60.
- Over 2.75: 0.30 × (o − 1) + 0.22 × (o − 1) / 2 = 0.48, so o − 1 = 0.48 / 0.41 = 1.17 and o = 2.17.
The 2.17 sits between 1.92 and 2.60, as you would expect from a line that is half of each. The market also adds a margin, so the prices you see are lower.