Both give a head start to the side seen as weaker. The difference is what happens when the result after the handicapi comes out level.
Two ways to settle the same handicap
In the European handicap there are three outcomes: home win, handicap draw and away win. If the handicap is −1 for the home side, the "draw" means a home win by exactly one goal. Three outcomes means there is no refund.
In the Asian handicap there are two outcomes. If the result after the handicap comes out level, the stake is refunded. Here is how the same picks settle in two made-up matches.
| Pick | Final 2-0 | Final 1-0 |
|---|---|---|
| European, home −1 | Wins | Loses |
| European, handicap draw | Loses | Wins |
| European, away +1 | Loses | Loses |
| Asian, home −1 | Wins | Refund |
| Asian, away +1 | Loses | Refund |
How the prices relate to 1X2
Say the fair 1X2 probabilities are 45% home, 28% draw, 27% away. Made-up assumption: 60% of home wins are by exactly one goal. Then a one-goal win has 27.0% and a win by two or more has 18.0%.
In the Asian −1 the 27% handicap draw becomes a refund. That leaves 18% for a win and 55% for a loss.
In practice bookmakers add a margin, so the prices you see are lower than the fair ones.
When each one fits
The European handicap has a higher price because it refunds nothing. In our example 5.56 against 4.06. The Asian one lowers variance, because part of the outcomes are refunded.
- If you expect a comfortable win, the European −1 pays higher.
- If you fear a one-goal win, the Asian −1 covers you with a refund.
- If you want to play exactly the one-goal win, only the European market offers it as a pick, in our example 1 / 0.27 = 3.70.
The naming differs by bookmaker. Count the options: three prices mean European, two mean Asian. Also check the market title before you confirm the bet. The three European probabilities must always add up to 100%: 18 + 27 + 55.