Wales vs Denmark: prediction and analysis
stadiumUEFA NATIONS LEAGUE•18:45 GMT
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WAL
HOMEWales
VS18:45 GMT
Denmark
DEN
AWAYmonitoring
PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
2.70
sports_soccer
MODEL OVER 2.5
51%
sync_alt
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
54%
query_stats
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
0
model_training
ALGORITHMIC PICK
Over 8.5 corners
query_stats
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.
token
FREEAlgorithmic Value
PRIMARY PICK63%
Over 8.5 corners
Expected corners: Wales 4.8, Denmark 5.4, total 10.2 (line 8.5).
Corners-for rate vs average: Wales x1.35, Denmark x1.46 (sample 25 and 25 equivalent matches).
Odds: 1.60
scatter_plot
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Wales 1 - 1 Denmark
PROBABILITY
11.9%
analytics
Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market
Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.
MODEL MARKET
27%Home win (1)25%
26%Draw (X)27%
47%Away win (2)49%
51%Over 2.5 goals52%
54%Both teams to score—
1.13Expected goals (model)1.57
31%Elo rating probabilities (1 / X / 2)41%
Draw: 28%
SCORE PROBABILITY GRID
Poisson from expected goals. Rows: Wales. Columns: Denmark. %
01234506.710.58.24.31.70.517.611.99.34.91.90.624.36.85.32.81.10.331.62.62.01.00.40.140.50.70.60.30.10.050.10.20.10.10.00.0