Greece vs Germany: prediction and analysis
stadiumUEFA NATIONS LEAGUE•18:45 GMT
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GRE
HOMEGreece
VS18:45 GMT
Germany
GER
AWAYmonitoring
PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
3.01
sports_soccer
MODEL OVER 2.5
58%
sync_alt
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
59%
query_stats
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
0
model_training
ALGORITHMIC PICK
Over 8.5 corners
query_stats
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.
token
FREEAlgorithmic Value
PRIMARY PICK69%
Over 8.5 corners
Expected corners: Greece 4.6, Germany 6.2, total 10.9 (line 8.5).
Corners-for rate vs average: Greece x1.27, Germany x1.69 (sample 24 and 25 equivalent matches).
Odds: 1.55
scatter_plot
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Greece 1 - 1 Germany
PROBABILITY
10.7%
analytics
Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market
Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.
MODEL MARKET
25%Home win (1)23%
24%Draw (X)24%
51%Away win (2)53%
58%Over 2.5 goals60%
59%Both teams to score—
1.21Expected goals (model)1.80
37%Elo rating probabilities (1 / X / 2)35%
Draw: 29%
SCORE PROBABILITY GRID
Poisson from expected goals. Rows: Greece. Columns: Germany. %
01234504.98.97.94.82.10.816.010.79.75.82.60.923.66.55.93.51.60.631.52.62.41.40.60.240.40.80.70.40.20.150.10.20.20.10.00.0