Netherlands vs Serbia: prediction and analysis
stadiumUEFA NATIONS LEAGUE•18:45 GMT
scheduleKICKOFF IN:
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NET
HOMENetherlands
VS18:45 GMT
Serbia
SER
AWAYmonitoring
PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
4.01
sports_soccer
MODEL OVER 2.5
76%
sync_alt
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
58%
query_stats
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
0
model_training
ALGORITHMIC PICK
No pick passes our filters for this match.
query_stats
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.
token
FREEAlgorithmic Value
NO PICK
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.
scatter_plot
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Netherlands 3 - 0 Serbia
PROBABILITY
8.8%
analytics
Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market
Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.
MODEL MARKET
80%Home win (1)83%
12%Draw (X)11%
8%Away win (2)6%
76%Over 2.5 goals—
58%Both teams to score—
3.08Expected goals (model)0.93
80%Elo rating probabilities (1 / X / 2)9%
Draw: 11%
SCORE PROBABILITY GRID
Poisson from expected goals. Rows: Netherlands. Columns: Serbia. %
01234501.81.70.80.20.10.015.65.22.40.70.20.028.68.03.71.20.30.038.88.23.81.20.30.146.86.32.90.90.20.054.23.91.80.60.10.0