Without a record you do not know whether you are winning. Memory keeps the wins and drops the losses. A plain log fixes that.
The columns you need
| Date | Match and market | Odds | Stake | Closing odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | A v B, Over 2.5 | 1.90 | 1u | 1.82 | +0.90u |
| 12/10 | C v D, 1X | 1.45 | 1u | 1.50 | −1u |
| 13/10 | E v F, BTTSi | 1.85 | 1u | 1.80 | +0.85u |
The metrics
- ROIi: net profit divided by the total amount staked.
- Hit ratei: wins divided by bets. On its own it does not show profit.
- CLVi: whether the price you took beat the closing price. It shows selection quality faster than profit does.
Example
On the first bet you took 1.90 and the close was 1.82. The close implies 1 / 1.82 = 54.9% and your price 1 / 1.90 = 52.6%. You got a better price than the market.
How to read it each week
Once a week, not after every bet, compute the ROI, the average CLV and how many bets you placed. Look at CLV first. If the average stays positive over hundreds of bets, you are consistently getting better prices than the market, even if profit does not show yet.
In the table above the three bets returned +0.75u on 3u staked, an ROI of +25%. A number like that says nothing, because the sample is three bets. The same goes for hit rate: 2 out of 3 is 67%, but it does not prove skill.
Also write one line on why you played. When you read the log a month later, you will see which reasons worked and which were just mood.
Judge nothing on a few bets. It takes hundreds, often thousands, to tell skill from luck.