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Bonuses and free bets: what they are really worth

3 min read · Beginner · Updated 2026-10-21

In one sentence
A bonus is worth the bonus minus the expected margin cost of its wagering requirement, so a high requirement can make it worthless.

A bonus of 100 is not 100 in your pocket. It usually comes with a wagering requirement: you must stake an amount before you can withdraw. Terms differ. Always read them.

The maths

Every bet has an expected cost equal to the margin times the stake. A wagering requirement forces you to place many bets, so you pay the margin many times.

Expected bonus value ≈ bonus − (turnover × margin). It is an approximation: it ignores the risk of losing the balance before you finish the turnover.

Example
You deposit 100 and get a 100 bonus. The requirement: turnover of 10 times the bonus, which is 1,000. If your bets carry an average margin of 5%, the expected cost is 1,000 × 0.05 = 50. Bonus value ≈ 100 − 50 = 50. At a 10% margin the value drops to 0.
Bonus value 100, margin 5%, by turnover5x turnover+7510x turnover+5015x turnover+2520x turnover030x turnover-50
As the requirement grows, the bonus loses value. At 20x it reaches zero, and above that it turns negative. Made-up data.

Free bets

A free bet usually does not return the stake when you win. You only get the profit. If the fair probability is 1 / odds, the value is stake × (odds − 1) / odds.

Example
A free bet of 10 at odds of 5.00. Fair probability 20%. If it wins, you get 10 × 4 = 40. Expected value 0.20 × 40 = 8, which is 80% of its face value. At odds of 2.00 it would be 0.50 × 10 = 5, which is 50%. With a margin in the price, slightly less in both cases.

What to check

  • Whether the requirement counts the bonus only or the deposit too.
  • Minimum odds per bet and markets that do not count.
  • The deadline to finish the turnover.
  • The cap on what you can withdraw from bonus winnings.

How to judge it

Before you accept a bonus, do three sums. First find the turnover. If the requirement is 8 times (deposit and bonus together) and you deposit 50 with a 50 bonus, the turnover is 8 × 100 = 800.

Then multiply by the margin you expect: 800 × 0.05 = 40. Finally subtract from the bonus: 50 − 40 = 10. The bonus is worth about 10, not 50.

If the result is near zero or negative, you lose nothing by skipping it. A wagering requirement is not a trap in itself, but it is not a gift either. Think about the time it will take, too.

Risk counts too. With a turnover of 800 and a 5% margin, the expected cost is 40, but the real result will differ from that. You can lose the balance before you finish the turnover, and then the bonus is worth nothing. The average describes many repetitions, not your single one.

A bonus should never make you stake more, or higher, than you otherwise would. Only play amounts you can afford to lose. 18+.

Check your understanding

1. Bonus 100, turnover 1,000, margin 5%. What is the approximate value?
100 − 1,000 × 0.05 = 50.
2. A free bet of 10 at 5.00 with a fair probability of 20%. What is the expected value?
0.20 × 10 × 4 = 8.

18+ only. Educational information, not betting or financial advice.

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