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Intermediate
Course

Football models and data

Expected goals, Poisson, Elo, the market as a predictor, how to judge a model, and how Asian handicap works.

What you will learn

  • Read xG and understand what it measures and what it does not.
  • Derive 1X2 probabilities from expected goals with Poisson and Dixon-Coles.
  • Compute a win probability from Elo ratings.
  • Explain why the market is hard to beat and what CLV is.
  • Judge a model with the Brier score and a calibration curve.
  • Settle Asian handicap bets, including quarter lines.

Lessons

1Expected goals (xG): what it measures and what it does notxG adds up the quality of chances, which makes it steadier than goals over a short run.3 min2Poisson, Dixon-Coles and xG: how match probabilities are builtPoisson turns an average number of goals into a grid of scoreline probabilities, and Dixon-Coles corrects the low scores.3 min3Elo ratings in footballElo turns the gap between two ratings into a win expectancy, and the ratings update after every result.3 min4The market, CLV and the favourite-longshot biasThe closing price of a sharp market is the best public estimate, so we start from it and add a small model correction.3 min5How to judge a model: Brier score and calibrationA good model is one whose stated probabilities match how often things happen, and the Brier score and a calibration curve test exactly that.3 min6Asian handicap: what it is and how it settlesAsian handicap removes the draw, and quarter lines split your stake across two neighbouring lines.3 min

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